COVID-19 Intervention Scenarios for a Long-term Disease Management
© 2020 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited..
BACKGROUND: The first outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was successfully restrained in many countries around the world by means of a severe lockdown. Now, we are entering the second phase of the pandemics in which the spread of the virus needs to be contained within the limits that national health systems can cope with. This second phase of the epidemics is expected to last until a vaccination is available or herd immunity is reached. Long-term management strategies thus need to be developed.
METHODS: In this paper we present a new agent-based simulation model "COVID-19 ABM" with which we simulate 4 alternative scenarios for the second "new normality" phase that can help decision-makers to take adequate control and intervention measures.
RESULTS: The scenarios resulted in distinctly different outcomes. A continued lockdown could regionally eradicate the virus within a few months, whereas a relaxation back to 80% of former activity-levels was followed by a second outbreak. Contact-tracing as well as adaptive response strategies could keep COVID-19 within limits.
CONCLUSION: The main insights are that low-level voluntary use of tracing apps shows no relevant effects on containing the virus, whereas medium or high-level tracing allows maintaining a considerably higher level of social activity. Adaptive control strategies help in finding the level of least restrictions. A regional approach to adaptive management can further help in fine-tuning the response to regional dynamics and thus minimise negative economic effects.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:9 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
International journal of health policy and management - 9(2020), 12 vom: 01. Dez., Seite 508-516 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Wallentin, Gudrun [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
Agent-Based Model |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 15.02.2021 Date Revised 17.03.2021 published: Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.34172/ijhpm.2020.130 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM313048851 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM313048851 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20231225145731.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231225s2020 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.34172/ijhpm.2020.130 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1043.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM313048851 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)32729281 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Wallentin, Gudrun |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a COVID-19 Intervention Scenarios for a Long-term Disease Management |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2020 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 15.02.2021 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 17.03.2021 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2020 The Author(s); Published by Kerman University of Medical Sciences. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: The first outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) was successfully restrained in many countries around the world by means of a severe lockdown. Now, we are entering the second phase of the pandemics in which the spread of the virus needs to be contained within the limits that national health systems can cope with. This second phase of the epidemics is expected to last until a vaccination is available or herd immunity is reached. Long-term management strategies thus need to be developed | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: In this paper we present a new agent-based simulation model "COVID-19 ABM" with which we simulate 4 alternative scenarios for the second "new normality" phase that can help decision-makers to take adequate control and intervention measures | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: The scenarios resulted in distinctly different outcomes. A continued lockdown could regionally eradicate the virus within a few months, whereas a relaxation back to 80% of former activity-levels was followed by a second outbreak. Contact-tracing as well as adaptive response strategies could keep COVID-19 within limits | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSION: The main insights are that low-level voluntary use of tracing apps shows no relevant effects on containing the virus, whereas medium or high-level tracing allows maintaining a considerably higher level of social activity. Adaptive control strategies help in finding the level of least restrictions. A regional approach to adaptive management can further help in fine-tuning the response to regional dynamics and thus minimise negative economic effects | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Agent-Based Model | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Containment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Corona Virus | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Pandemic | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Scenario Analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Simulation | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kaziyeva, Dana |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Reibersdorfer-Adelsberger, Eva |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t International journal of health policy and management |d 2013 |g 9(2020), 12 vom: 01. Dez., Seite 508-516 |w (DE-627)NLM23610392X |x 2322-5939 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:9 |g year:2020 |g number:12 |g day:01 |g month:12 |g pages:508-516 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.34172/ijhpm.2020.130 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 9 |j 2020 |e 12 |b 01 |c 12 |h 508-516 | ||