Impact of Ukrainian refugees on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics after February 24, 2022
On February 24, 2022 Russia started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which created an unprecedented number of refugees. To estimate the influence of this humanitarian disaster on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics, the averaged daily numbers of cases and reproduction numbers in Ukraine, the UK, Poland, Germany, the Republic of Moldova, and in the whole world were calculated for the period February-April 2022. The registered numbers of cases were compared with ones calculated with the use of the generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure for the previous epidemic waves in Ukraine, Poland, Germany, and the world. Since before February 24, 2022 the estimation of the number of infectious persons per capita in Ukraine 3.6 times exceeded the global figure, the increase of the number the new cases and the pandemic duration was expected. In March 2022 the increase of the averaged number of new cases in the UK, Germany, and worldwide was visible. A simple formula to estimate the effective reproduction number based on the smoothed accumulated numbers of cases is proposed. The results of calculations agree with the figures presented by John Hopkins University and demonstrate a short-term growth of the reproduction number in the UK, Poland, Germany, Moldova, and worldwide in March 2022..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Preprints.org - (2024) vom: 10. Apr. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2024 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Nesteruk, Igor [VerfasserIn] |
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| doi: |
10.20944/preprints202401.0733.v1 |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
preprintsorg042128730 |
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| 520 | |a On February 24, 2022 Russia started the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which created an unprecedented number of refugees. To estimate the influence of this humanitarian disaster on the COVID-19 pandemic dynamics, the averaged daily numbers of cases and reproduction numbers in Ukraine, the UK, Poland, Germany, the Republic of Moldova, and in the whole world were calculated for the period February-April 2022. The registered numbers of cases were compared with ones calculated with the use of the generalized SIR-model and corresponding parameter identification procedure for the previous epidemic waves in Ukraine, Poland, Germany, and the world. Since before February 24, 2022 the estimation of the number of infectious persons per capita in Ukraine 3.6 times exceeded the global figure, the increase of the number the new cases and the pandemic duration was expected. In March 2022 the increase of the averaged number of new cases in the UK, Germany, and worldwide was visible. A simple formula to estimate the effective reproduction number based on the smoothed accumulated numbers of cases is proposed. The results of calculations agree with the figures presented by John Hopkins University and demonstrate a short-term growth of the reproduction number in the UK, Poland, Germany, Moldova, and worldwide in March 2022. | ||
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