Reasonable Limiting 7-day Incidence per Hundred Thousand Value in Germany
Based on the hospital capacities, facts from the past experience with the Covid-19 virus and the dark number of infections D=10D_{10} a reasonable limiting value of 170/D_{10} for the monitored 7-day incidence per 100000 persons value (MSDIHT) in Germany is calculated. If the MSDIHT is held below this limiting value the German hospital system can cope with the number of new seriously infected persons without any triage decisions. A significant improvement to an almost complete testing of the population would lead to dramatic reduction of the current dark numer value to D_{10}=0.1 so that ten times higher MSDIHT values of 1700 are acceptable. Such a high limiting value would spare Germany from its currently imposed strict lockdown. The costs for such extensive and complete testing campaigns are highly justified as they are orders of magnitudes below the estimated economical costs of more than 3.6 billion Euros for each lockdown day..
| Medienart: |
|
|---|
Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Preprints.org - (2023) vom: 17. Jan. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2023 |
|---|
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Kröger, Martin [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| doi: |
10.20944/preprints202101.0252.v1 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
preprintsorg019731590 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | preprintsorg019731590 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20230429203712.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 210115s2023 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.20944/preprints202101.0252.v1 |2 doi | |
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.20944/preprints202101.0252.v1 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)preprintsorg019731590 | ||
| 035 | |a (preprintsorg)10.20944/preprints202101.0252 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Kröger, Martin |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Reasonable Limiting 7-day Incidence per Hundred Thousand Value in Germany |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2023 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a Based on the hospital capacities, facts from the past experience with the Covid-19 virus and the dark number of infections D=10D_{10} a reasonable limiting value of 170/D_{10} for the monitored 7-day incidence per 100000 persons value (MSDIHT) in Germany is calculated. If the MSDIHT is held below this limiting value the German hospital system can cope with the number of new seriously infected persons without any triage decisions. A significant improvement to an almost complete testing of the population would lead to dramatic reduction of the current dark numer value to D_{10}=0.1 so that ten times higher MSDIHT values of 1700 are acceptable. Such a high limiting value would spare Germany from its currently imposed strict lockdown. The costs for such extensive and complete testing campaigns are highly justified as they are orders of magnitudes below the estimated economical costs of more than 3.6 billion Euros for each lockdown day. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Schlickeiser, Reinhard |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Preprints.org |g (2023) vom: 17. Jan. |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g year:2023 |g day:17 |g month:01 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.3390/covid1010012 |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.20944/preprints202101.0252.v1 |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a preprintsorg | ||
| 912 | |a SSG-OLC-PHA | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |j 2023 |b 17 |c 01 | ||