The Global Evolution of Inflammatory Bowel Disease across Four Epidemiologic Stages
Abstract During the 20th century, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was considered a disease of early-industrialized regions in North America, Europe, and Oceania. At the turn of the 21st century, incidence of IBD increased in newly-industrialized and emerging regions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, while prevalence in early-industrialized regions started to grow steadily. Changes in incidence and prevalence denote evolution of IBD across four epidemiologic stages: Stage 1 (Emergence), characterized by low incidence and prevalence; stage 2 (Acceleration in Incidence), characterized by rapidly rising incidence and low prevalence; and stage 3 (Compounding Prevalence), characterized by decelerating, plateauing, or declining incidence and steadily rising prevalence. A fourth stage (Prevalence Equilibrium) has been proposed where the slope of prevalence plateaus due to shifting demographics of an aging IBD population, but it has not yet been evidenced. To date, these stages have been theoretical without specific incidence/prevalence indicators defining transition points. Using real-world data from 490 population-based studies comprising 80 global regions and spanning over a century (1920–2023), we show spatiotemporal transitions across stages 1–3 and model transition towards stage 4. Understanding the evolution of IBD across epidemiologic stages allows healthcare systems to better prepare for the future worldwide burden of IBD..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
ResearchSquare.com - (2024) vom: 23. Jan. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2024 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Kaplan, Gilaad [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| Themen: |
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| doi: |
10.21203/rs.3.rs-3846147/v1 |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XRA042262577 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract During the 20th century, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) was considered a disease of early-industrialized regions in North America, Europe, and Oceania. At the turn of the 21st century, incidence of IBD increased in newly-industrialized and emerging regions in Africa, Asia, and Latin America, while prevalence in early-industrialized regions started to grow steadily. Changes in incidence and prevalence denote evolution of IBD across four epidemiologic stages: Stage 1 (Emergence), characterized by low incidence and prevalence; stage 2 (Acceleration in Incidence), characterized by rapidly rising incidence and low prevalence; and stage 3 (Compounding Prevalence), characterized by decelerating, plateauing, or declining incidence and steadily rising prevalence. A fourth stage (Prevalence Equilibrium) has been proposed where the slope of prevalence plateaus due to shifting demographics of an aging IBD population, but it has not yet been evidenced. To date, these stages have been theoretical without specific incidence/prevalence indicators defining transition points. Using real-world data from 490 population-based studies comprising 80 global regions and spanning over a century (1920–2023), we show spatiotemporal transitions across stages 1–3 and model transition towards stage 4. Understanding the evolution of IBD across epidemiologic stages allows healthcare systems to better prepare for the future worldwide burden of IBD. | ||
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