Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness: variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky
Abstract Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021–August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), variant-specific infected (I1andI2), recovered (R), and seropositive (T) model (SVI2RT) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which corresponded to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration had the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Our study underscores the importance of continued environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
bioRxiv.org - (2023) vom: 05. Dez. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2023 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Holm, Rochelle H. [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| doi: |
10.1101/2023.01.06.23284260 |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XBI038354411 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness: variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021–August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), variant-specific infected (I1andI2), recovered (R), and seropositive (T) model (SVI2RT) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which corresponded to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration had the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Our study underscores the importance of continued environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness. | ||
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