Evaluating the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions for SARS-CoV-2 on a global scale
Abstract In the absence of a viable pharmaceutical intervention for SARS-CoV-2, governments have implemented a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to curb the spread of infection of the virus and the disease caused by the virus, now known as COVID-19. Given the associated social and economic costs, it is critical to enumerate the individual impacts of NPIs to aid in decision-making moving forward. We used globally reported SARS-CoV-2 cases to fit a Bayesian model framework to estimate transmission associated with NPIs in 26 countries and 34 US states. Using a mixed effects model with country level random effects, we compared the relative impact of other NPIs to national-level household confinement measures and evaluated the impact of NPIs on the global trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic over time. We observed heterogeneous impacts of the easing of restrictions and estimated an overall reduction in infection of 23% (95% CI: 18-27%) associated with household confinement, 10% (95% CI: 1-18%) with limits on gatherings, 12% (95% CI: 5-19%) with school closures and 17% (95% CI: 6-28%) with mask policies. We estimated a 12% (95% CI: 9-15%) reduction in transmission associated with NPIs overall. The implementation of NPIs have substantially reduced acceleration of COVID-19. At this early time point, we cannot determine the impact of the easing of restrictions and there is a need for continual assessment of context specific effectiveness of NPIs as more data become available..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
bioRxiv.org - (2021) vom: 21. Jan. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2021 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Esra, Rachel [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| doi: |
10.1101/2020.07.30.20164939 |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XBI018500714 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract In the absence of a viable pharmaceutical intervention for SARS-CoV-2, governments have implemented a range of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to curb the spread of infection of the virus and the disease caused by the virus, now known as COVID-19. Given the associated social and economic costs, it is critical to enumerate the individual impacts of NPIs to aid in decision-making moving forward. We used globally reported SARS-CoV-2 cases to fit a Bayesian model framework to estimate transmission associated with NPIs in 26 countries and 34 US states. Using a mixed effects model with country level random effects, we compared the relative impact of other NPIs to national-level household confinement measures and evaluated the impact of NPIs on the global trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic over time. We observed heterogeneous impacts of the easing of restrictions and estimated an overall reduction in infection of 23% (95% CI: 18-27%) associated with household confinement, 10% (95% CI: 1-18%) with limits on gatherings, 12% (95% CI: 5-19%) with school closures and 17% (95% CI: 6-28%) with mask policies. We estimated a 12% (95% CI: 9-15%) reduction in transmission associated with NPIs overall. The implementation of NPIs have substantially reduced acceleration of COVID-19. At this early time point, we cannot determine the impact of the easing of restrictions and there is a need for continual assessment of context specific effectiveness of NPIs as more data become available. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Jamieson, Lise |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Fox, Matthew P. |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Letswalo, Daniel |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ngcobo, Nkosinathi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mngadi, Sithabile |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Estill, Janne |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Meyer-Rath, Gesine |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Keiser, Olivia |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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