COVID-19 Trend and Forecast in India: A Joinpoint Regression Analysis
Abstract This paper analyses the trend in daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India using joinpoint regression analysis. The analysis reveals that there has been little impact of the nation-wide lockdown and subsequent extension on the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that relaxations under the third and the fourth phase of the lockdown have resulted in a spike in the reported confirmed cases. The analysis also suggests that if the current trend continues, in the immediate future, then the daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country is likely to increase to 21 thousand by 15 June 2020 whereas the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 will increase to around 422 thousand. The analysis calls for a population-wide testing approach to check the increase in the reported confirmed cases of COVID-19..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
bioRxiv.org - (2020) vom: 29. Dez. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2020 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Chaurasia, Aalok Ranjan [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| doi: |
10.1101/2020.05.26.20113399 |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XBI018069274 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract This paper analyses the trend in daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in India using joinpoint regression analysis. The analysis reveals that there has been little impact of the nation-wide lockdown and subsequent extension on the progress of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country and there is no empirical evidence to suggest that relaxations under the third and the fourth phase of the lockdown have resulted in a spike in the reported confirmed cases. The analysis also suggests that if the current trend continues, in the immediate future, then the daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the country is likely to increase to 21 thousand by 15 June 2020 whereas the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 will increase to around 422 thousand. The analysis calls for a population-wide testing approach to check the increase in the reported confirmed cases of COVID-19. | ||
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