Predicting the end-stage of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil
Abstract We develop a dynamic model of a COVID-19 epidemic as a system of differential equations. The model incorporates an asymptomatic infectious stage and a symptomatic infectious stage. We apply the model to the current COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We compare the model output to current epidemic data, and project forward in time possible end-stages of the epidemic in Brazil. The model emphasizes the importance of reducing asymptomatic infections in controlling the epidemic..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2021 |
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| Erschienen: |
2021 |
| Enthalten in: |
bioRxiv.org - (2021) vom: 04. Jan. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2021 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Fitzgibbon, W.E. [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| doi: |
10.1101/2020.05.28.20116103 |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XBI018044611 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract We develop a dynamic model of a COVID-19 epidemic as a system of differential equations. The model incorporates an asymptomatic infectious stage and a symptomatic infectious stage. We apply the model to the current COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil. We compare the model output to current epidemic data, and project forward in time possible end-stages of the epidemic in Brazil. The model emphasizes the importance of reducing asymptomatic infections in controlling the epidemic. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Morgan, J.J. |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Webb, G.F. |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wu, Y. |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t bioRxiv.org |g (2021) vom: 04. Jan. |
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