Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number
The time varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks, but delays between infection and reporting hinder its accurate estimation in real time. We propose a nowcasting method for improving the timeliness and accuracy of R estimates, based on comparisons of successive versions of surveillance databases. The method was validated against COVID-19 surveillance data collected in Italy over an 18-month period. Compared to traditional methods, the nowcasted reproduction number reduced the estimation delay from 13 to 8 days, while maintaining a better accuracy. Moreover, it allowed anticipating the detection of periods of epidemic growth by between 6 and 23 days. The method offers a simple and generally applicable tool to improve situational awareness during an epidemic outbreak, allowing for informed public health response planning..
| Medienart: |
|
|---|
Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
arXiv.org - (2023) vom: 26. Sept. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2023 |
|---|
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Bizzotto, Andrea [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
|---|
| Themen: |
|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
|---|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XAR040955419 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | XAR040955419 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20231002061527.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231002s2023 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-627)XAR040955419 | ||
| 035 | |a (arXiv)2309.14801 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Bizzotto, Andrea |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Increasing situational awareness through nowcasting of the reproduction number |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2023 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a The time varying reproduction number R is a critical variable for situational awareness during infectious disease outbreaks, but delays between infection and reporting hinder its accurate estimation in real time. We propose a nowcasting method for improving the timeliness and accuracy of R estimates, based on comparisons of successive versions of surveillance databases. The method was validated against COVID-19 surveillance data collected in Italy over an 18-month period. Compared to traditional methods, the nowcasted reproduction number reduced the estimation delay from 13 to 8 days, while maintaining a better accuracy. Moreover, it allowed anticipating the detection of periods of epidemic growth by between 6 and 23 days. The method offers a simple and generally applicable tool to improve situational awareness during an epidemic outbreak, allowing for informed public health response planning. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution |7 (dpeaa)DE-84 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a 570 |7 (dpeaa)DE-84 | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Guzzetta, Giorgio |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Marziano, Valentina |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a del Manso, Martina |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Urdiales, Alberto Mateo |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Petrone, Daniele |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cannone, Andrea |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sacco, Chiara |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Poletti, Piero |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Manica, Mattia |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zardini, Agnese |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Trentini, Filippo |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Fabiani, Massimo |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bella, Antonino |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Riccardo, Flavia |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Pezzotti, Patrizio |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ajelli, Marco |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Merler, Stefano |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t arXiv.org |g (2023) vom: 26. Sept. |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g year:2023 |g day:26 |g month:09 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://arxiv.org/abs/2309.14801 |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_XAR | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |j 2023 |b 26 |c 09 | ||