Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: response to Maruotti et al. 2022
Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; it is impossible to estimate undercounting based solely on a single stream of reported cases. Simulations based on a Richards curve for cumulative incidence show that, for reasonable epidemic parameters, the proposed methods estimate bounds on the ascertainment ratio of $\approx 0.2-0.5$ roughly independently of the true ascertainment ratio. These methods should not be used..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
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| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
arXiv.org - (2022) vom: 22. Sept. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2022 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Li, Michael [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| Themen: |
510 |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XAR037385968 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Evaluating undercounts in epidemics: response to Maruotti et al. 2022 |
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| 520 | |a Maruotti et al. 2022 used a mark-recapture approach to estimate bounds on the true number of monkeypox infections in various countries. These approaches are fundamentally flawed; it is impossible to estimate undercounting based solely on a single stream of reported cases. Simulations based on a Richards curve for cumulative incidence show that, for reasonable epidemic parameters, the proposed methods estimate bounds on the ascertainment ratio of $\approx 0.2-0.5$ roughly independently of the true ascertainment ratio. These methods should not be used. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution |7 (dpeaa)DE-84 | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Bolker, Benjamin M. |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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