On automatic calibration of the SIRD epidemiological model for COVID-19 data in Poland
We propose a novel methodology for estimating the epidemiological parameters of a modified SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals) and perform a short-term forecast of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. We mainly focus on forecasting number of deceased. The procedure was tested on reported data for Poland. For some short-time intervals we performed numerical test investigating stability of parameter estimates in the proposed approach. Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of short-term forecasts (up to 2 weeks) and stability of the method. To improve their performance (i.e. computation time) GPU architecture was used in computations..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
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| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
arXiv.org - (2022) vom: 26. Apr. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2022 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Błaszczyk, Piotr [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XAR03585832X |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a On automatic calibration of the SIRD epidemiological model for COVID-19 data in Poland |
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| 520 | |a We propose a novel methodology for estimating the epidemiological parameters of a modified SIRD model (acronym of Susceptible, Infected, Recovered and Deceased individuals) and perform a short-term forecast of SARS-CoV-2 virus spread. We mainly focus on forecasting number of deceased. The procedure was tested on reported data for Poland. For some short-time intervals we performed numerical test investigating stability of parameter estimates in the proposed approach. Numerical experiments confirm the effectiveness of short-term forecasts (up to 2 weeks) and stability of the method. To improve their performance (i.e. computation time) GPU architecture was used in computations. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a Klimczak, Konrad |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mahdi, Adam |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Oprocha, Piotr |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Potorski, Paweł |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Przybyłowicz, Paweł |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sobieraj, Michał |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t arXiv.org |g (2022) vom: 26. Apr. |
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