Homogeneous Interpretable Approximations to Heterogeneous SIR Models

The SIR-compartment model is among the simplest models that describe the spread of a disease through a population. The model makes the unrealistic assumption that the population through which the disease is spreading is well-mixed. Although real populations have heterogeneities in contacts not represented in the SIR model, it nevertheless well fits real US state Covid-19 case data. Here we demonstrate mathematically how closely the simple continuous SIR model approximates a model which includes heterogeneous contacts, and provide insight onto how one can interpret parameters gleaned from regression in the context of heterogeneous dynamics..

Medienart:

Preprint

Erscheinungsjahr:

2020

Erschienen:

2020

Enthalten in:

arXiv.org - (2020) vom: 24. Dez. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2020

Sprache:

Englisch

Beteiligte Personen:

Wilkinson, Ryan [VerfasserIn]
Roper, Marcus [VerfasserIn]

Links:

Volltext [kostenfrei]

Förderinstitution / Projekttitel:

PPN (Katalog-ID):

XAR019631731