Inferring the effect of interventions on COVID-19 transmission networks
Countries around the world implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to flatten the curve of COVID-19 cases but failed to eradicate the disease. Design of efficient NPIs requires identification of the structure of the underlying transmission network. We combine Bayesian parameter inference with a network-based epidemiological model that allows to interpolate between random and small-world transmission networks. Using epidemiological data from Germany, we show that NPIs reduced non-local contacts in the transmission network, resulting in a change from an exponential to a constant regime. Due to the small-world nature of the inferred network, exponential spread can be efficiently prevented by reducing non-local contacts. Eliminating the disease remains costly as it requires to reduce all contacts. Our code is freely available and can be readily adapted to any country..
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Preprint| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
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| Erschienen: |
2020 |
| Enthalten in: |
arXiv.org - (2020) vom: 07. Dez. Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2020 |
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| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Syga, Simon [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XAR019502141 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Inferring the effect of interventions on COVID-19 transmission networks |
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| 520 | |a Countries around the world implemented non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to flatten the curve of COVID-19 cases but failed to eradicate the disease. Design of efficient NPIs requires identification of the structure of the underlying transmission network. We combine Bayesian parameter inference with a network-based epidemiological model that allows to interpolate between random and small-world transmission networks. Using epidemiological data from Germany, we show that NPIs reduced non-local contacts in the transmission network, resulting in a change from an exponential to a constant regime. Due to the small-world nature of the inferred network, exponential spread can be efficiently prevented by reducing non-local contacts. Eliminating the disease remains costly as it requires to reduce all contacts. Our code is freely available and can be readily adapted to any country. | ||
| 700 | 1 | |a David-Rus, Diana |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Schälte, Yannik |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Meyer-Hermann, Michael |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hatzikirou, Haralampos |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Deutsch, Andreas |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t arXiv.org |g (2020) vom: 07. Dez. |
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