Modeling indoor-level non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a pedestrian dynamics-based microscopic simulation approach
Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a significant epidemic spreading risk origin, but existing widely-used epidemic spreading models are usually limited for indoor places since the dynamic physical distance changes between people are ignored, and the empirical features of the essential and non-essential travel are not differentiated. In this paper, we introduce a pedestrian-based epidemic spreading model that is capable of modeling indoor transmission risks of diseases during people's social activities. Taking advantage of the before-and-after mobility data from the University of Maryland COVID-19 Impact Analysis Platform, it's found that people tend to spend more time in grocery stores once their travel frequencies are restricted to a low level. In other words, an increase in dwell time could balance the decrease in travel frequencies and satisfy people's demand. Based on the pedestrian-based model and the empirical evidence, combined non-pharmaceutical interventions from different operational levels are evaluated. Numerical simulations show that restrictions on people's travel frequency and open-hours of indoor places may not be universally effective in reducing average infection risks for each pedestrian who visit the place. Entry limitations can be a widely effective alternative, whereas the decision-maker needs to balance the decrease in risky contacts and the increase in queue length outside the place that may impede people from fulfilling their travel needs..
Medienart: |
Preprint |
---|
Erscheinungsjahr: |
2020 |
---|---|
Erschienen: |
2020 |
Enthalten in: |
arXiv.org - (2020) vom: 18. Juni Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2020 |
---|
Sprache: |
Englisch |
---|
Beteiligte Personen: |
Xiao, Yao [VerfasserIn] |
---|
Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
---|
Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
---|
PPN (Katalog-ID): |
XAR018176917 |
---|
LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
---|---|---|---|
001 | XAR018176917 | ||
003 | DE-627 | ||
005 | 20230429071006.0 | ||
007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
008 | 200619s2020 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
035 | |a (DE-627)XAR018176917 | ||
035 | |a (arXiv)2006.10666 | ||
040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
041 | |a eng | ||
082 | 0 | |a 000 | |
082 | 0 | |a 530 | |
245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modeling indoor-level non-pharmaceutical interventions during the COVID-19 pandemic: a pedestrian dynamics-based microscopic simulation approach |
264 | 1 | |c 2020 | |
336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
520 | |a Mathematical modeling of epidemic spreading has been widely adopted to estimate the threats of epidemic diseases (i.e., the COVID-19 pandemic) as well as to evaluate epidemic control interventions. The indoor place is considered to be a significant epidemic spreading risk origin, but existing widely-used epidemic spreading models are usually limited for indoor places since the dynamic physical distance changes between people are ignored, and the empirical features of the essential and non-essential travel are not differentiated. In this paper, we introduce a pedestrian-based epidemic spreading model that is capable of modeling indoor transmission risks of diseases during people's social activities. Taking advantage of the before-and-after mobility data from the University of Maryland COVID-19 Impact Analysis Platform, it's found that people tend to spend more time in grocery stores once their travel frequencies are restricted to a low level. In other words, an increase in dwell time could balance the decrease in travel frequencies and satisfy people's demand. Based on the pedestrian-based model and the empirical evidence, combined non-pharmaceutical interventions from different operational levels are evaluated. Numerical simulations show that restrictions on people's travel frequency and open-hours of indoor places may not be universally effective in reducing average infection risks for each pedestrian who visit the place. Entry limitations can be a widely effective alternative, whereas the decision-maker needs to balance the decrease in risky contacts and the increase in queue length outside the place that may impede people from fulfilling their travel needs. | ||
700 | 1 | |a Xiao, Yao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Yang, Mofeng |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Zhu, Zheng |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Yang, Hai |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Zhang, Lei |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Ghader, Sepehr |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t arXiv.org |g (2020) vom: 18. Juni |
773 | 1 | 8 | |g year:2020 |g day:18 |g month:06 |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.10666 |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
912 | |a GBV_XAR | ||
912 | |a SSG-OLC-PHA | ||
951 | |a AR | ||
952 | |j 2020 |b 18 |c 06 | ||
953 | |2 045F |a 000 | ||
953 | |2 045F |a 530 |