Development and internal validation of a prognostic model for loss of balance and falls in mid- to late-stage Parkinson’s disease
Background Mid- to late-stage Parkinson’s disease (PD) is often linked with worsened and significant impairment of motor activities, but existing prognostic markers do not adequately capture the risk of loss of balance in PD patients. This study aims to develop a risk prognostic model for mid- to late-stage PD and identify prognostic factors that are indicative of impending loss of balance and falls. Methods The study included 307 participants of which 75 were diagnosed with idiopathic PD and 232 were neurological or non-neurological controls. Among the PD group, 46 were early-stage (Hoehn and Yahr [H&Y] = 1,2) with no significant loss of balance while 29 were mid- to late-stage (H&Y = 3,4,5) which is characterized by loss of balance and falls. Multivariable logistic regression (MLR) was used to develop a prognostic model for mid- to late-stage PD. Model discrimination was assessed by ROC curves. The model was internally validated through bootstrapping and calibration plots. Results The relevant factors identified and included in the final MLR model were shortness of breath, age, swollen joints, heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) protein, and total salivary protein. The model had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.71–0.92) and was well calibrated (calibration slope = 0.77, intercept = 0.03). The likelihood of shortness of breath (OR = 7.91, 95% CI = 1.63–45.12) was significantly higher among mid- to late-stage PD than early-stage. Age and total salivary protein were also significantly higher among mid- to late-stage PD. Conclusion The MLR prognostic model for mid- to late-stage PD may assist physicians in identifying patients at high risk for loss of balance and falls..
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:45 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Neurological sciences - 45(2023), 5 vom: 07. Dez., Seite 2027-2033 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Juwara, Lamin [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [lizenzpflichtig] |
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| BKL: | |
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| Themen: |
Balance/falls |
| Anmerkungen: |
© Fondazione Società Italiana di Neurologia 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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| doi: |
10.1007/s10072-023-07220-x |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| 520 | |a Background Mid- to late-stage Parkinson’s disease (PD) is often linked with worsened and significant impairment of motor activities, but existing prognostic markers do not adequately capture the risk of loss of balance in PD patients. This study aims to develop a risk prognostic model for mid- to late-stage PD and identify prognostic factors that are indicative of impending loss of balance and falls. Methods The study included 307 participants of which 75 were diagnosed with idiopathic PD and 232 were neurological or non-neurological controls. Among the PD group, 46 were early-stage (Hoehn and Yahr [H&Y] = 1,2) with no significant loss of balance while 29 were mid- to late-stage (H&Y = 3,4,5) which is characterized by loss of balance and falls. Multivariable logistic regression (MLR) was used to develop a prognostic model for mid- to late-stage PD. Model discrimination was assessed by ROC curves. The model was internally validated through bootstrapping and calibration plots. Results The relevant factors identified and included in the final MLR model were shortness of breath, age, swollen joints, heme oxygenase-1 (HO-1) protein, and total salivary protein. The model had an AUC of 0.82 (95% CI = 0.71–0.92) and was well calibrated (calibration slope = 0.77, intercept = 0.03). The likelihood of shortness of breath (OR = 7.91, 95% CI = 1.63–45.12) was significantly higher among mid- to late-stage PD than early-stage. Age and total salivary protein were also significantly higher among mid- to late-stage PD. Conclusion The MLR prognostic model for mid- to late-stage PD may assist physicians in identifying patients at high risk for loss of balance and falls. | ||
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