Global analysis of an age-structured tuberculosis model with an application to Jiangsu, China
Abstract Diagnostic delay for TB infected individuals and the lack of TB vaccines for adults are the main challenges to achieve the goals of WHO by 2050. In order to evaluate the impacts of diagnostic delay and vaccination for adults on prevalence of TB, we propose an age-structured model with latent age and infection age, and we incorporate Mycobacterium TB in the environment and vaccination into the model. Diagnostic delay is indicated by the age of infection before receiving treatment. The threshold dynamics are established in terms of the basic reproduction number $${\mathcal {R}}_0$$. When $${\mathcal {R}}_0<1$$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, which means that TB epidemic will die out; When $${\mathcal {R}}_0=1$$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally attractive; there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is globally attractive when $${\mathcal {R}}_0>1$$. We estimate that the basic reproduction number $${\mathcal {R}}_{0}=0.5320$$ (95% CI (0.3060, 0.7556)) in Jiangsu Province, which means that TB epidemic will die out. However, we find that the annual number of new TB cases by 2050 is 1,151 (95%CI: (138, 8,014)), which means that it is challenging to achieve the goal of WHO by 2050. To this end, we evaluate the possibility of achieving the goals of WHO if we start vaccinating adults and reduce diagnostic delay in 2025. Our results demonstrate that when the diagnostic delay is reduced from longer than four months to four months, or 20% adults are vaccinated, the goal of WHO in 2050 can be achieved, and 73,137 (95%CI: (23,906, 234,086)) and 54,828 (95%CI: (15,811, 206,468)) individuals will be prevented from being infected from 2025 to 2050, respectively. The modeling approaches and simulation results used in this work can help policymakers design control measures to reduce the prevalence of TB..
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E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
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Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:88 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Journal of mathematical biology - 88(2024), 5 vom: 02. Apr. |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Jing, Shuanglin [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [lizenzpflichtig] |
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| Themen: |
Age-structured model |
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© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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| doi: |
10.1007/s00285-024-02066-z |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Diagnostic delay for TB infected individuals and the lack of TB vaccines for adults are the main challenges to achieve the goals of WHO by 2050. In order to evaluate the impacts of diagnostic delay and vaccination for adults on prevalence of TB, we propose an age-structured model with latent age and infection age, and we incorporate Mycobacterium TB in the environment and vaccination into the model. Diagnostic delay is indicated by the age of infection before receiving treatment. The threshold dynamics are established in terms of the basic reproduction number $${\mathcal {R}}_0$$. When $${\mathcal {R}}_0<1$$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable, which means that TB epidemic will die out; When $${\mathcal {R}}_0=1$$, the disease-free equilibrium is globally attractive; there exists a unique endemic equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium is globally attractive when $${\mathcal {R}}_0>1$$. We estimate that the basic reproduction number $${\mathcal {R}}_{0}=0.5320$$ (95% CI (0.3060, 0.7556)) in Jiangsu Province, which means that TB epidemic will die out. However, we find that the annual number of new TB cases by 2050 is 1,151 (95%CI: (138, 8,014)), which means that it is challenging to achieve the goal of WHO by 2050. To this end, we evaluate the possibility of achieving the goals of WHO if we start vaccinating adults and reduce diagnostic delay in 2025. Our results demonstrate that when the diagnostic delay is reduced from longer than four months to four months, or 20% adults are vaccinated, the goal of WHO in 2050 can be achieved, and 73,137 (95%CI: (23,906, 234,086)) and 54,828 (95%CI: (15,811, 206,468)) individuals will be prevented from being infected from 2025 to 2050, respectively. The modeling approaches and simulation results used in this work can help policymakers design control measures to reduce the prevalence of TB. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Age-structured model |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Hao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Peng, Zhihang |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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