Collateral effects of COVID-19 countermeasures on hepatitis E incidence pattern: a case study of china based on time series models
Background There are abundant studies on COVID-19 but few on its impact on hepatitis E. We aimed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 countermeasures on the pattern of hepatitis E incidence and explore the application of time series models in analyzing this pattern. Methods Our pivotal idea was to fit a pre-COVID-19 model with data from before the COVID-19 outbreak and use the deviation between forecast values and actual values to reflect the effect of COVID-19 countermeasures. We analyzed the pattern of hepatitis E incidence in China from 2013 to 2018. We evaluated the fitting and forecasting capability of 3 methods before the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, we employed these methods to construct pre-COVID-19 incidence models and compare post-COVID-19 forecasts with reality. Results Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern was overall stationary and seasonal, with a peak in March, a trough in October, and higher levels in winter and spring than in summer and autumn, annually. Nevertheless, post-COVID-19 forecasts from pre-COVID-19 models were extremely different from reality in sectional periods but congruous in others. Conclusions Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern has altered substantially, and the incidence has greatly decreased. The effect of the COVID-19 countermeasures on the pattern of hepatitis E incidence was temporary. The incidence of hepatitis E was anticipated to gradually revert to its pre-COVID-19 pattern..
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:24 |
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| Enthalten in: |
BMC infectious diseases - 24(2024), 1 vom: 27. März |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Qin, Yajun [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| BKL: | |
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| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
| Anmerkungen: |
© The Author(s) 2024 |
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| doi: |
10.1186/s12879-024-09243-x |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
SPR055326250 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Collateral effects of COVID-19 countermeasures on hepatitis E incidence pattern: a case study of china based on time series models |
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| 520 | |a Background There are abundant studies on COVID-19 but few on its impact on hepatitis E. We aimed to assess the effect of the COVID-19 countermeasures on the pattern of hepatitis E incidence and explore the application of time series models in analyzing this pattern. Methods Our pivotal idea was to fit a pre-COVID-19 model with data from before the COVID-19 outbreak and use the deviation between forecast values and actual values to reflect the effect of COVID-19 countermeasures. We analyzed the pattern of hepatitis E incidence in China from 2013 to 2018. We evaluated the fitting and forecasting capability of 3 methods before the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, we employed these methods to construct pre-COVID-19 incidence models and compare post-COVID-19 forecasts with reality. Results Before the COVID-19 outbreak, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern was overall stationary and seasonal, with a peak in March, a trough in October, and higher levels in winter and spring than in summer and autumn, annually. Nevertheless, post-COVID-19 forecasts from pre-COVID-19 models were extremely different from reality in sectional periods but congruous in others. Conclusions Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the Chinese hepatitis E incidence pattern has altered substantially, and the incidence has greatly decreased. The effect of the COVID-19 countermeasures on the pattern of hepatitis E incidence was temporary. The incidence of hepatitis E was anticipated to gradually revert to its pre-COVID-19 pattern. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Hepatitis E |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Peng, Haiyang |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Jinhao |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gong, Jianping |4 aut | |
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