Global burden and future trends in psoriasis epidemiology: insights from the global burden of disease study 2019 and predictions to 2030
Background Millions of people worldwide are affected by psoriasis, one of the most prevalent skin conditions. Currently, there is a lack of high-quality epidemiological reports on psoriasis. Objective This study aimed to reveal trends in psoriasis epidemiology in 1990–2019. Methods Using data from the GBD study 2019, we examined psoriasis epidemiology globally and across regions defined by the social-demographic index (SDI). Trends in incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC)s. Age-period-cohort analysis examined risk variations, and decomposition analysis identified factors impacting the psoriasis burden. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model predicted future incidence. Frontier analysis associated psoriasis outcomes with socio-demographic development. Results In 2019, the global psoriasis burden included 4,622,594 incidence, 40,805,386 prevalence, and 3,505,736 DALY cases. Despite variations in SDI regions, the overall trend showed a decline in psoriasis rates from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = − 0.76). The age-specific analysis indicated that the highest incidence of psoriasis was observed among individuals aged 40–64 years (global, 1,606,429). Epidemiological shifts contributed negatively to global incidence and DALYs by − 80.52% and − 103.06%, respectively. Countries like San Marino and Spain displayed the highest effective differences in the decomposition analysis. By 2030, while incidence cases per 10,000 might rise (487.36, 423.62 to 551.10), age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 were predicted to decline (53.67, 0.00 to 259.99). Conclusion This research revealed a global decline in psoriasis incidence rate from 1990 to 2019, with predictions suggesting this trend continues through 2030. Geographic disparities underscore the importance of tailored healthcare policies..
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:316 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Archives of dermatological research - 316(2024), 4 vom: 26. März |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Wang, Kaijie [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [lizenzpflichtig] |
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| Themen: |
Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model |
| Anmerkungen: |
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2024. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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| doi: |
10.1007/s00403-024-02846-z |
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| funding: |
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| 520 | |a Background Millions of people worldwide are affected by psoriasis, one of the most prevalent skin conditions. Currently, there is a lack of high-quality epidemiological reports on psoriasis. Objective This study aimed to reveal trends in psoriasis epidemiology in 1990–2019. Methods Using data from the GBD study 2019, we examined psoriasis epidemiology globally and across regions defined by the social-demographic index (SDI). Trends in incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC)s. Age-period-cohort analysis examined risk variations, and decomposition analysis identified factors impacting the psoriasis burden. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model predicted future incidence. Frontier analysis associated psoriasis outcomes with socio-demographic development. Results In 2019, the global psoriasis burden included 4,622,594 incidence, 40,805,386 prevalence, and 3,505,736 DALY cases. Despite variations in SDI regions, the overall trend showed a decline in psoriasis rates from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = − 0.76). The age-specific analysis indicated that the highest incidence of psoriasis was observed among individuals aged 40–64 years (global, 1,606,429). Epidemiological shifts contributed negatively to global incidence and DALYs by − 80.52% and − 103.06%, respectively. Countries like San Marino and Spain displayed the highest effective differences in the decomposition analysis. By 2030, while incidence cases per 10,000 might rise (487.36, 423.62 to 551.10), age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 were predicted to decline (53.67, 0.00 to 259.99). Conclusion This research revealed a global decline in psoriasis incidence rate from 1990 to 2019, with predictions suggesting this trend continues through 2030. Geographic disparities underscore the importance of tailored healthcare policies. | ||
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