Impacts of Vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Variants Alpha and Delta on Coronavirus Disease 2019 Transmission Dynamics in Four Metropolitan Areas of the United States
Abstract To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. Estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data..
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:86 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Bulletin of mathematical biology - 86(2024), 3 vom: 14. Feb. |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Mallela, Abhishek [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [lizenzpflichtig] |
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| Anmerkungen: |
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Mathematical Biology 2024. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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| doi: |
10.1007/s11538-024-01258-4 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| 520 | |a Abstract To characterize Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission dynamics in each of the metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) surrounding Dallas, Houston, New York City, and Phoenix in 2020 and 2021, we extended a previously reported compartmental model accounting for effects of multiple distinct periods of non-pharmaceutical interventions by adding consideration of vaccination and Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) and Delta (lineage B.1.617.2). For each MSA, we found region-specific parameterizations of the model using daily reports of new COVID-19 cases available from January 21, 2020 to October 31, 2021. In the process, we obtained estimates of the relative infectiousness of Alpha and Delta as well as their takeoff times in each MSA (the times at which sustained transmission began). The estimated infectiousness of Alpha ranged from 1.1x to 1.4x that of viral strains circulating in 2020 and early 2021. The estimated relative infectiousness of Delta was higher in all cases, ranging from 1.6x to 2.1x. The estimated Alpha takeoff times ranged from February 1 to February 28, 2021. The estimated Delta takeoff times ranged from June 2 to June 26, 2021. Estimated takeoff times are consistent with genomic surveillance data. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Vaccination |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a SARS-CoV-2 variant Alpha (lineage B.1.1.7) |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a SARS-CoV-2 variant Delta (lineage B.1.617.2) |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematical model |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Miller, Ely F. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Neumann, Jacob |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a He, Zhili |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Nelson, Kathryn E. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Posner, Richard G. |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hlavacek, William S. |0 (orcid)0000-0003-4383-8711 |4 aut | |
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