Evaluating Strategies For Tuberculosis to Achieve the Goals of WHO in China: A Seasonal Age-Structured Model Study
Abstract Although great progress has been made in the prevention and mitigation of TB in the past 20 years, China is still the third largest contributor to the global burden of new TB cases, accounting for 833,000 new cases in 2019. Improved mitigation strategies, such as vaccines, diagnostics, and treatment, are needed to meet goals of WHO. Given the huge variability in the prevalence of TB across age-groups in China, the vaccination, diagnostic techniques, and treatment for different age-groups may have different effects. Moreover, the statistics data of TB cases show significant seasonal fluctuations in China. In view of the above facts, we propose a non-autonomous differential equation model with age structure and seasonal transmission rate. We derive the basic reproduction number, %${\mathcal {R}}_{0}%$, and prove that the unique disease-free periodic solution, %${\mathcal {P}}_{0}%$ is globally asymptotically stable when %${\mathcal {R}}_{0}<1%$, while the disease is uniformly persistent and at least one positive periodic solution exists when %${\mathcal {R}}_{0}>1%$. We estimate that the basic reproduction number %${\mathcal {R}}_{0}=1.3935%$ (%$95\%\text{ CI }:(1.3729, 1.4087)%$), which means that TB is uniformly persistent. Our results demonstrate that vaccinating susceptible individuals whose ages are over 65 and between 20 and 24 is much more effective in reducing the prevalence of TB, and each of the improved vaccination strategy, diagnostic strategy, and treatment strategy leads to substantial reductions in the prevalence of TB per 100,000 individuals compared with current approaches, and the combination of the three strategies is more effective. Scenario A (i.e., coverage rate %$85\%%$, diagnosis rate %$5\theta _{k}%$, relapse rate %$0.1\chi _{k}%$) is the best and can reduce the prevalence of TB per 100,000 individuals by %$98.91\%%$ and %$99.07\%%$ in 2035 and 2050, respectively. Although the improved strategies will significantly reduce the incidence rate of TB, it is challenging to achieve the goal of WHO in 2050. Our findings can provide guidance for public health authorities in projecting effective mitigation strategies of TB..
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
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| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:84 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Bulletin of mathematical biology - 84(2022), 6 vom: 29. Apr. |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Xue, Ling [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [lizenzpflichtig] |
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| Themen: |
Basic reproduction number |
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| Anmerkungen: |
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Society for Mathematical Biology 2022 |
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| doi: |
10.1007/s11538-022-01019-1 |
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| funding: |
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SPR046875786 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Although great progress has been made in the prevention and mitigation of TB in the past 20 years, China is still the third largest contributor to the global burden of new TB cases, accounting for 833,000 new cases in 2019. Improved mitigation strategies, such as vaccines, diagnostics, and treatment, are needed to meet goals of WHO. Given the huge variability in the prevalence of TB across age-groups in China, the vaccination, diagnostic techniques, and treatment for different age-groups may have different effects. Moreover, the statistics data of TB cases show significant seasonal fluctuations in China. In view of the above facts, we propose a non-autonomous differential equation model with age structure and seasonal transmission rate. We derive the basic reproduction number, %${\mathcal {R}}_{0}%$, and prove that the unique disease-free periodic solution, %${\mathcal {P}}_{0}%$ is globally asymptotically stable when %${\mathcal {R}}_{0}<1%$, while the disease is uniformly persistent and at least one positive periodic solution exists when %${\mathcal {R}}_{0}>1%$. We estimate that the basic reproduction number %${\mathcal {R}}_{0}=1.3935%$ (%$95\%\text{ CI }:(1.3729, 1.4087)%$), which means that TB is uniformly persistent. Our results demonstrate that vaccinating susceptible individuals whose ages are over 65 and between 20 and 24 is much more effective in reducing the prevalence of TB, and each of the improved vaccination strategy, diagnostic strategy, and treatment strategy leads to substantial reductions in the prevalence of TB per 100,000 individuals compared with current approaches, and the combination of the three strategies is more effective. Scenario A (i.e., coverage rate %$85\%%$, diagnosis rate %$5\theta _{k}%$, relapse rate %$0.1\chi _{k}%$) is the best and can reduce the prevalence of TB per 100,000 individuals by %$98.91\%%$ and %$99.07\%%$ in 2035 and 2050, respectively. Although the improved strategies will significantly reduce the incidence rate of TB, it is challenging to achieve the goal of WHO in 2050. Our findings can provide guidance for public health authorities in projecting effective mitigation strategies of TB. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Seasonal age-structured model |7 (dpeaa)DE-He213 | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Jing, Shuanglin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Hao |0 (orcid)0000-0002-4132-6109 |4 aut | |
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