Erector spinae muscle-based nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality among older patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia
Background No multivariable model incorporating erector spinae muscle (ESM) has been developed to predict clinical outcomes in older patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). This study aimed to construct a nomogram based on ESM to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with SCAP. Methods Patients aged ≥ 65 years with SCAP were enrolled in this prospective observational study. Least absolute selection and shrinkage operator and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality. A nomogram prediction model was constructed. The predictive performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis. Results A total of 490 patients were included, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 36.1%. The nomogram included the following independent risk factors: mean arterial pressure, peripheral capillary oxygen saturation, Glasgow Coma Scale score (GCS), lactate, lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen levels, and ESM cross-sectional area. Incorporating ESM into the base model with other risk factors significantly improved the C-index from 0.803 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.761–0.845) to 0.836 (95% CI, 0.798–0.873), and these improvements were confirmed by category-free NRI and IDI. The ESM-based nomogram demonstrated a high level of discrimination, good calibration, and overall net benefits for predicting in-hospital mortality compared with the combination of confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥ 65 years (CURB-65), Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHEII), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). Conclusions The proposed ESM-based nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality among older patients with SCAP may help physicians to promptly identify patients prone to adverse outcomes. Trial registration This study was registered at www.chictr.org.cn (registration number Chi CTR-2300070377)..
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:23 |
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| Enthalten in: |
BMC pulmonary medicine - 23(2023), 1 vom: 14. Sept. |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Shang, Na [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [kostenfrei] |
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| BKL: | |
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| Themen: |
Aged |
| Anmerkungen: |
© BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature 2023 |
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| doi: |
10.1186/s12890-023-02640-z |
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| funding: |
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| 520 | |a Background No multivariable model incorporating erector spinae muscle (ESM) has been developed to predict clinical outcomes in older patients with severe community-acquired pneumonia (SCAP). This study aimed to construct a nomogram based on ESM to predict in-hospital mortality in patients with SCAP. Methods Patients aged ≥ 65 years with SCAP were enrolled in this prospective observational study. Least absolute selection and shrinkage operator and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to identify risk factors for in-hospital mortality. A nomogram prediction model was constructed. The predictive performance was evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve, net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and decision curve analysis. Results A total of 490 patients were included, and the in-hospital mortality rate was 36.1%. The nomogram included the following independent risk factors: mean arterial pressure, peripheral capillary oxygen saturation, Glasgow Coma Scale score (GCS), lactate, lactate dehydrogenase, blood urea nitrogen levels, and ESM cross-sectional area. Incorporating ESM into the base model with other risk factors significantly improved the C-index from 0.803 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.761–0.845) to 0.836 (95% CI, 0.798–0.873), and these improvements were confirmed by category-free NRI and IDI. The ESM-based nomogram demonstrated a high level of discrimination, good calibration, and overall net benefits for predicting in-hospital mortality compared with the combination of confusion, urea, respiratory rate, blood pressure, and age ≥ 65 years (CURB-65), Pneumonia Severity Index (PSI), Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHEII), and Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA). Conclusions The proposed ESM-based nomogram for predicting in-hospital mortality among older patients with SCAP may help physicians to promptly identify patients prone to adverse outcomes. Trial registration This study was registered at www.chictr.org.cn (registration number Chi CTR-2300070377). | ||
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