Modelling the effect of travel-related policies on disease control in a meta-population structure
Abstract Travel restrictions, while delaying the spread of an emerging disease from the source, could inflict substantial socioeconomic burden. Travel-related policies, such as quarantine and testing of travelers, may be considered as alternative strategies to mitigate the negative impact of travel bans. We developed a meta-population, delay-differential model to evaluate a strategy that combines testing of travelers prior to departure from the source of infection with quarantine and testing at exit from quarantine in the destination population. Our results, based on early parameter estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection, indicate that testing travelers at exit from quarantine is more effective in delaying case importation than testing them before departure or upon arrival. We show that a 1-day quarantine with an exit test could outperform a longer, 3-day quarantine without testing in delaying the outbreak peak. Rapid, large-scale testing capacities with short turnaround times provide important means of detecting infectious cases and reducing case importation, while shortening quarantine duration for travelers at destination..
| Medienart: |
Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:87 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Journal of mathematical biology - 87(2023), 4 vom: 09. Sept. |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Xu, Jingjing [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [lizenzpflichtig] |
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| Themen: |
Disease dynamics |
| Anmerkungen: |
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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| doi: |
10.1007/s00285-023-01990-w |
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| funding: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
OLC2145480811 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract Travel restrictions, while delaying the spread of an emerging disease from the source, could inflict substantial socioeconomic burden. Travel-related policies, such as quarantine and testing of travelers, may be considered as alternative strategies to mitigate the negative impact of travel bans. We developed a meta-population, delay-differential model to evaluate a strategy that combines testing of travelers prior to departure from the source of infection with quarantine and testing at exit from quarantine in the destination population. Our results, based on early parameter estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection, indicate that testing travelers at exit from quarantine is more effective in delaying case importation than testing them before departure or upon arrival. We show that a 1-day quarantine with an exit test could outperform a longer, 3-day quarantine without testing in delaying the outbreak peak. Rapid, large-scale testing capacities with short turnaround times provide important means of detecting infectious cases and reducing case importation, while shortening quarantine duration for travelers at destination. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Disease dynamics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Meta-population | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Dispersal | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Testing | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Quarantine | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Isolation | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Simulations | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Zhen |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Moghadas, Seyed M. |0 (orcid)0000-0003-4414-0227 |4 aut | |
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