Analyzing the effect of restrictions on the COVID-19 outbreak for some US states
Abstract The ongoing pandemic disease COVID‑19 has caused worldwide social and financial disruption. As many countries are engaged in designing vaccines, the harmful second and third waves of COVID‑19 have already appeared in many countries. To investigate changes in transmission rates and the effect of social distancing in the USA, we formulate a system of ordinary differential equations using data of confirmed cases and deaths in these states: California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, and Missouri. Our models and their parameter estimations show social distancing can reduce the transmission of COVID‑19 by 60% to 90%. Thus, obeying the movement restriction rules is crucial in reducing the magnitude of the outbreak waves. This study also estimates the percentage of people who were not social distancing ranges between 10% and 18% in these states. Our analysis shows the management restrictions taken by these states do not slow the disease progression enough to contain the outbreak..
| Medienart: |
Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:16 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Theoretical ecology - 16(2023), 2 vom: 25. Apr., Seite 117-129 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Demir, Mahir [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
Volltext [lizenzpflichtig] |
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| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
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| Anmerkungen: |
© The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. 2023. Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law. |
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| doi: |
10.1007/s12080-023-00557-1 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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OLC2143703619 |
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| 520 | |a Abstract The ongoing pandemic disease COVID‑19 has caused worldwide social and financial disruption. As many countries are engaged in designing vaccines, the harmful second and third waves of COVID‑19 have already appeared in many countries. To investigate changes in transmission rates and the effect of social distancing in the USA, we formulate a system of ordinary differential equations using data of confirmed cases and deaths in these states: California, Texas, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, and Missouri. Our models and their parameter estimations show social distancing can reduce the transmission of COVID‑19 by 60% to 90%. Thus, obeying the movement restriction rules is crucial in reducing the magnitude of the outbreak waves. This study also estimates the percentage of people who were not social distancing ranges between 10% and 18% in these states. Our analysis shows the management restrictions taken by these states do not slow the disease progression enough to contain the outbreak. | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Lenhart, Suzanne |4 aut | |
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