Details der Publikation - Simulation study reveals factors that affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variant

Simulation study reveals factors that affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variant

Abstract The novel variants of the SARS-CoV-2 are a great global concern for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, how the novel variants predominate and replace existing strains remains elusive. In this study, I simulated the infection spread to investigate what kinds of viral, immunological, and epidemiological factors affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variants. The results showed that the increase of the transmissibility of the novel variant substantially enhanced the predominance probability. In addition, the increasing trend of the infection spread, the large case number of the epidemic, and the ability of immune escape of the novel variant increased the predominance probability. A small number of cases and a decreasing trend of an entire epidemic, including not only the novel variant but also earlier strains, are especially important to reduce the chance of the predominance of the novel variant and delay the process. Good control of the COVID-19 epidemic could make the disease burden small and sequester the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 novel variants..

Medienart:	E-Artikel

Erscheinungsjahr:	2021
Erschienen:	2021

Enthalten in:	Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:18
Enthalten in:	Virology journal - 18(2021), 1 vom: 20. Dez.

Sprache:	Englisch

Beteiligte Personen:	Furuse, Yuki [VerfasserIn]

Links:	Volltext [kostenfrei]

Themen:	COVID-19 Epidemiology SARS-CoV-2 Transmission Variant

Anmerkungen:	© The Author(s) 2021

doi:	10.1186/s12985-021-01726-6

funding:
Förderinstitution / Projekttitel:

PPN (Katalog-ID):	OLC2128842069

Internformat


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520			\|a Abstract The novel variants of the SARS-CoV-2 are a great global concern for the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. However, how the novel variants predominate and replace existing strains remains elusive. In this study, I simulated the infection spread to investigate what kinds of viral, immunological, and epidemiological factors affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variants. The results showed that the increase of the transmissibility of the novel variant substantially enhanced the predominance probability. In addition, the increasing trend of the infection spread, the large case number of the epidemic, and the ability of immune escape of the novel variant increased the predominance probability. A small number of cases and a decreasing trend of an entire epidemic, including not only the novel variant but also earlier strains, are especially important to reduce the chance of the predominance of the novel variant and delay the process. Good control of the COVID-19 epidemic could make the disease burden small and sequester the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 novel variants.
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912			\|a GBV_ILN_31
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912			\|a GBV_ILN_60
912			\|a GBV_ILN_62
912			\|a GBV_ILN_63
912			\|a GBV_ILN_65
912			\|a GBV_ILN_69
912			\|a GBV_ILN_73
912			\|a GBV_ILN_74
912			\|a GBV_ILN_95
912			\|a GBV_ILN_105
912			\|a GBV_ILN_110
912			\|a GBV_ILN_151
912			\|a GBV_ILN_161
912			\|a GBV_ILN_170
912			\|a GBV_ILN_206
912			\|a GBV_ILN_213
912			\|a GBV_ILN_230
912			\|a GBV_ILN_285
912			\|a GBV_ILN_293
912			\|a GBV_ILN_602
912			\|a GBV_ILN_702
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2001
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2003
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2005
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2006
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2007
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2008
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2009
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2010
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2011
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912			\|a GBV_ILN_2015
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2020
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2021
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2025
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2031
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2038
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2044
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2048
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2055
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2056
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2057
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2061
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2111
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2113
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2134
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2190
912			\|a GBV_ILN_2446
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4012
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4037
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4112
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4125
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4126
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4249
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4305
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4306
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4307
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4313
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4322
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4323
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4324
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4325
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4338
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4367
912			\|a GBV_ILN_4700
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Simulation study reveals factors that affect the predominance of SARS-CoV-2 novel variant

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