Dynamic SARS-CoV-2 surveillance model combining seroprevalence and wastewater concentrations for post-vaccine disease burden estimates
© 2024. The Author(s)..
BACKGROUND: Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates.
METHODS: We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible ( S ), vaccinated ( V ), variant-specific infected ( I 1 and I 2 ), recovered ( R ), and seropositive ( T ) model ( S V I 2 R T ) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration.
RESULTS: Here we show the 64% county vaccination rate translate into about a 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence is a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which correspond to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration have the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag.
CONCLUSIONS: Our study underscores the importance of continuing environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:4 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Communications medicine - 4(2024), 1 vom: 09. Apr., Seite 70 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Holm, Rochelle H [VerfasserIn] |
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Date Revised 25.04.2024 published: Electronic Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1038/s43856-024-00494-y |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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NLM370837169 |
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| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2024. The Author(s). | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible ( S ), vaccinated ( V ), variant-specific infected ( I 1 and I 2 ), recovered ( R ), and seropositive ( T ) model ( S V I 2 R T ) tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: Here we show the 64% county vaccination rate translate into about a 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence is a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which correspond to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration have the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: Our study underscores the importance of continuing environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Choi, Boseung |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Brick, J Michael |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Amraotkar, Alok R |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Smith, Ted |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bhatnagar, Aruni |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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