Unraveling varying spatiotemporal patterns of dengue and associated exposure-response relationships with environmental variables in Southeast Asian countries before and during COVID-19
The enforcement of COVID-19 interventions by diverse governmental bodies, coupled with the indirect impact of COVID-19 on short-term environmental changes (e.g. plant shutdowns lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions), influences the dengue vector. This provides a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission and generate insights to guide more targeted prevention measures. We aim to compare dengue transmission patterns and the exposure-response relationship of environmental variables and dengue incidence in the pre- and during-COVID-19 to identify variations and assess the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission. We initially visualized the overall trend of dengue transmission from 2012-2022, then conducted two quantitative analyses to compare dengue transmission pre-COVID-19 (2017-2019) and during-COVID-19 (2020-2022). These analyses included time series analysis to assess dengue seasonality, and a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to quantify the exposure-response relationship between environmental variables and dengue incidence. We observed that all subregions in Thailand exhibited remarkable synchrony with a similar annual trend except 2021. Cyclic and seasonal patterns of dengue remained consistent pre- and during-COVID-19. Monthly dengue incidence in three countries varied significantly. Singapore witnessed a notable surge during-COVID-19, particularly from May to August, with cases multiplying several times compared to pre-COVID-19, while seasonality of Malaysia weakened. Exposure-response relationships of dengue and environmental variables show varying degrees of change, notably in Northern Thailand, where the peak relative risk for the maximum temperature-dengue relationship rose from about 3 to 17, and the max RR of overall cumulative association 0-3 months of relative humidity increased from around 5 to 55. Our study is the first to compare dengue transmission patterns and their relationship with environmental variables before and during COVID-19, showing that COVID-19 has affected dengue transmission at both the national and regional level, and has altered the exposure-response relationship between dengue and the environment.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2024 |
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| Enthalten in: |
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences - (2024) vom: 26. März |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Luo, Wei [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
COVID-19 |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 25.04.2024 published: Electronic Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1101/2024.03.25.24304825 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM370753569 |
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| 520 | |a The enforcement of COVID-19 interventions by diverse governmental bodies, coupled with the indirect impact of COVID-19 on short-term environmental changes (e.g. plant shutdowns lead to lower greenhouse gas emissions), influences the dengue vector. This provides a unique opportunity to investigate the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission and generate insights to guide more targeted prevention measures. We aim to compare dengue transmission patterns and the exposure-response relationship of environmental variables and dengue incidence in the pre- and during-COVID-19 to identify variations and assess the impact of COVID-19 on dengue transmission. We initially visualized the overall trend of dengue transmission from 2012-2022, then conducted two quantitative analyses to compare dengue transmission pre-COVID-19 (2017-2019) and during-COVID-19 (2020-2022). These analyses included time series analysis to assess dengue seasonality, and a Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) to quantify the exposure-response relationship between environmental variables and dengue incidence. We observed that all subregions in Thailand exhibited remarkable synchrony with a similar annual trend except 2021. Cyclic and seasonal patterns of dengue remained consistent pre- and during-COVID-19. Monthly dengue incidence in three countries varied significantly. Singapore witnessed a notable surge during-COVID-19, particularly from May to August, with cases multiplying several times compared to pre-COVID-19, while seasonality of Malaysia weakened. Exposure-response relationships of dengue and environmental variables show varying degrees of change, notably in Northern Thailand, where the peak relative risk for the maximum temperature-dengue relationship rose from about 3 to 17, and the max RR of overall cumulative association 0-3 months of relative humidity increased from around 5 to 55. Our study is the first to compare dengue transmission patterns and their relationship with environmental variables before and during COVID-19, showing that COVID-19 has affected dengue transmission at both the national and regional level, and has altered the exposure-response relationship between dengue and the environment | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Preprint | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Liu, Zhihao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ran, Yiding |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Mengqi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhou, Yuxuan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hou, Weitao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lai, Shengjie |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Sabrina L |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yin, Ling |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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