Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? Evidence from cell-phone data
Background: There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting.
Objectives: We aim to evaluate the extent to which weather impacts COVID-19 via time spent away-from-home in indoor spaces, as compared to a direct effect of weather on COVID-19 hospitalization, independent of mobility.
Methods: We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021.
Results: We found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Sensitivity analyses evaluating time at home as a mediator were consistent with these conclusions.
Discussion: Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and other seasonal respiratory pathogens.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2024 |
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| Enthalten in: |
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences - (2024) vom: 28. März |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Grover, Elise N [VerfasserIn] |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 25.04.2024 published: Electronic Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1101/2024.03.26.24304854 |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM370752724 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Grover, Elise N |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Does behavior mediate the effect of weather on SARS-CoV-2 transmission? Evidence from cell-phone data |
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| 500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Background: There is growing evidence that weather alters SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but it remains unclear what drives the phenomenon. One prevailing hypothesis is that people spend more time indoors in cooler weather, leading to increased spread of SARS-CoV-2 related to time spent in confined spaces and close contact with others. However, the evidence in support of that hypothesis is limited and, at times, conflicting | ||
| 520 | |a Objectives: We aim to evaluate the extent to which weather impacts COVID-19 via time spent away-from-home in indoor spaces, as compared to a direct effect of weather on COVID-19 hospitalization, independent of mobility | ||
| 520 | |a Methods: We use a mediation framework, and combine daily weather, COVID-19 hospital surveillance, cellphone-based mobility data and building footprints to estimate the relationship between daily indoor and outdoor weather conditions, mobility, and COVID-19 hospitalizations. We quantify the direct health impacts of weather on COVID-19 hospitalizations and the indirect effects of weather via time spent indoors away-from-home on COVID-19 hospitalizations within five Colorado counties between March 4th 2020 and January 31st 2021 | ||
| 520 | |a Results: We found evidence that changes in 12-day lagged hospital admissions were primarily via the direct effects of weather conditions, rather than via indirect effects by which weather changes time spent indoors away-from-home. Sensitivity analyses evaluating time at home as a mediator were consistent with these conclusions | ||
| 520 | |a Discussion: Our findings do not support the hypothesis that weather impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission via changes in mobility patterns during the first year of the pandemic. Rather, weather appears to have impacted SARS-CoV-2 transmission primarily via mechanisms other than human movement. We recommend further analysis of this phenomenon to determine whether these findings generalize to current SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and other seasonal respiratory pathogens | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Preprint | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Buchwald, Andrea G |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ghosh, Debashis |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Carlton, Elizabeth J |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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