Estimating Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Transmission of the COVID-19 First Few Cases in Selenge Province, Mongolia
© 2024 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd..
BACKGROUND: Following the first locally transmitted case in Sukhbaatar soum, Selenge Province, we aimed to investigate the ultimate scale of the epidemic in the scenario of uninterrupted transmission.
METHODS: This was a prospective case study following the locally modified WHO FFX cases generic protocol. A rapid response team collected data from November 14 to 29, 2020. We created a stochastic process to draw many transmission chains from this greater distribution to better understand and make inferences regarding the outbreak under investigation.
RESULTS: The majority of the cases involved household transmissions (35, 52.2%), work transmissions (20, 29.9%), index (5, 7.5%), same apartment transmissions (2, 3.0%), school transmissions (2, 3.0%), and random contacts between individuals transmissions (1, 1.5%). The posterior means of the basic reproduction number of both the asymptomatic cases R 0 Asy $$ {R}_0^{Asy} $$ and the presymptomatic cases R 0 Pre $$ {R}_0^{Pre} $$ (1.35 [95% CrI 0.88-1.86] and 1.29 [95% CrI 0.67-2.10], respectively) were lower than that of the symptomatic cases (2.00 [95% Crl 1.38-2.76]).
CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission across different symptom statuses and underscores the importance of early identification and isolation of symptomatic cases in disease control. Our approach, which combines detailed contact tracing data with advanced statistical methods, can be applied to other infectious diseases, facilitating a more nuanced understanding of disease transmission dynamics.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:18 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Influenza and other respiratory viruses - 18(2024), 4 vom: 28. Apr., Seite e13277 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Dambadarjaa, Davaalkham [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
Bayesian statistics |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 29.03.2024 Date Revised 20.04.2024 published: Print Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1111/irv.13277 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM37034037X |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM37034037X | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20240420232408.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 240329s2024 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1111/irv.13277 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1381.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM37034037X | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)38544454 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Dambadarjaa, Davaalkham |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Estimating Asymptomatic and Symptomatic Transmission of the COVID-19 First Few Cases in Selenge Province, Mongolia |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2024 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 29.03.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 20.04.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2024 The Authors. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: Following the first locally transmitted case in Sukhbaatar soum, Selenge Province, we aimed to investigate the ultimate scale of the epidemic in the scenario of uninterrupted transmission | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: This was a prospective case study following the locally modified WHO FFX cases generic protocol. A rapid response team collected data from November 14 to 29, 2020. We created a stochastic process to draw many transmission chains from this greater distribution to better understand and make inferences regarding the outbreak under investigation | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: The majority of the cases involved household transmissions (35, 52.2%), work transmissions (20, 29.9%), index (5, 7.5%), same apartment transmissions (2, 3.0%), school transmissions (2, 3.0%), and random contacts between individuals transmissions (1, 1.5%). The posterior means of the basic reproduction number of both the asymptomatic cases R 0 Asy $$ {R}_0^{Asy} $$ and the presymptomatic cases R 0 Pre $$ {R}_0^{Pre} $$ (1.35 [95% CrI 0.88-1.86] and 1.29 [95% CrI 0.67-2.10], respectively) were lower than that of the symptomatic cases (2.00 [95% Crl 1.38-2.76]) | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the heterogeneity of COVID-19 transmission across different symptom statuses and underscores the importance of early identification and isolation of symptomatic cases in disease control. Our approach, which combines detailed contact tracing data with advanced statistical methods, can be applied to other infectious diseases, facilitating a more nuanced understanding of disease transmission dynamics | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Bayesian statistics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a COVID‐19*/epidemiology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a SARS‐CoV‐2 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a coronavirus infections/epidemiology* | |
| 650 | 4 | |a family characteristics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a field epidemiology | |
| 650 | 4 | |a human* | |
| 650 | 4 | |a influenza | |
| 650 | 4 | |a pandemics* | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mend, Tsogt |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Shapiro, Andrew |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Handcock, Mark S |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mandakh, Undram |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Enebish, Temuulen |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Le, Linh-Vi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bandoy, Dj Darwin R |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Amarjargal, Ambaselmaa |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Altangerel, Bilegt |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chuluunbaatar, Tuvshintur |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Guruuchin, Uugantsetseg |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lkhagvajav, Oyuntulkhuur |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Enebish, Oyunsuren |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Influenza and other respiratory viruses |d 2007 |g 18(2024), 4 vom: 28. Apr., Seite e13277 |w (DE-627)NLM176605215 |x 1750-2659 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:18 |g year:2024 |g number:4 |g day:28 |g month:04 |g pages:e13277 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/irv.13277 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 18 |j 2024 |e 4 |b 28 |c 04 |h e13277 | ||