Global burden and future trends in psoriasis epidemiology : insights from the global burden of disease study 2019 and predictions to 2030
© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature..
BACKGROUND: Millions of people worldwide are affected by psoriasis, one of the most prevalent skin conditions. Currently, there is a lack of high-quality epidemiological reports on psoriasis.
OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to reveal trends in psoriasis epidemiology in 1990-2019.
METHODS: Using data from the GBD study 2019, we examined psoriasis epidemiology globally and across regions defined by the social-demographic index (SDI). Trends in incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC)s. Age-period-cohort analysis examined risk variations, and decomposition analysis identified factors impacting the psoriasis burden. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model predicted future incidence. Frontier analysis associated psoriasis outcomes with socio-demographic development.
RESULTS: In 2019, the global psoriasis burden included 4,622,594 incidence, 40,805,386 prevalence, and 3,505,736 DALY cases. Despite variations in SDI regions, the overall trend showed a decline in psoriasis rates from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = - 0.76). The age-specific analysis indicated that the highest incidence of psoriasis was observed among individuals aged 40-64 years (global, 1,606,429). Epidemiological shifts contributed negatively to global incidence and DALYs by - 80.52% and - 103.06%, respectively. Countries like San Marino and Spain displayed the highest effective differences in the decomposition analysis. By 2030, while incidence cases per 10,000 might rise (487.36, 423.62 to 551.10), age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 were predicted to decline (53.67, 0.00 to 259.99).
CONCLUSION: This research revealed a global decline in psoriasis incidence rate from 1990 to 2019, with predictions suggesting this trend continues through 2030. Geographic disparities underscore the importance of tailored healthcare policies.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:316 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Archives of dermatological research - 316(2024), 4 vom: 26. März, Seite 114 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Wang, Kaijie [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 28.03.2024 Date Revised 09.04.2024 published: Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1007/s00403-024-02846-z |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| 520 | |a © 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature. | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: Millions of people worldwide are affected by psoriasis, one of the most prevalent skin conditions. Currently, there is a lack of high-quality epidemiological reports on psoriasis | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to reveal trends in psoriasis epidemiology in 1990-2019 | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: Using data from the GBD study 2019, we examined psoriasis epidemiology globally and across regions defined by the social-demographic index (SDI). Trends in incidence, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates were assessed using estimated annual percentage changes (EAPC)s. Age-period-cohort analysis examined risk variations, and decomposition analysis identified factors impacting the psoriasis burden. A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort model predicted future incidence. Frontier analysis associated psoriasis outcomes with socio-demographic development | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: In 2019, the global psoriasis burden included 4,622,594 incidence, 40,805,386 prevalence, and 3,505,736 DALY cases. Despite variations in SDI regions, the overall trend showed a decline in psoriasis rates from 1990 to 2019 (EAPC = - 0.76). The age-specific analysis indicated that the highest incidence of psoriasis was observed among individuals aged 40-64 years (global, 1,606,429). Epidemiological shifts contributed negatively to global incidence and DALYs by - 80.52% and - 103.06%, respectively. Countries like San Marino and Spain displayed the highest effective differences in the decomposition analysis. By 2030, while incidence cases per 10,000 might rise (487.36, 423.62 to 551.10), age-standardized incidence rates per 100,000 were predicted to decline (53.67, 0.00 to 259.99) | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSION: This research revealed a global decline in psoriasis incidence rate from 1990 to 2019, with predictions suggesting this trend continues through 2030. Geographic disparities underscore the importance of tailored healthcare policies | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Frontier analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Global burden of disease | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Incidence | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Psoriasis | |
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| 700 | 1 | |a Cao, Xianwei |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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