Sweden's excess mortality in 2020-2022 and reporting in the media
AIM: The aim was to scrutinize the report in March 2023 that Sweden's excess mortality was lowest in 2020-2022 compared with other European Union and Nordic countries, a report that received great national and international attention.
STUDY DESIGN: Comparison of excess mortality in Sweden and Norway.
METHODS: Excess mortality for 2020-2022 was calculated for Sweden and Norway, the country with per-capita excess mortality closest to Sweden's, compared with the average mortality for 2017-2019 in the respective country, following the definitions by Statistics Sweden reported in a daily newspaper.
RESULTS: Excess mortality is a measure with low misclassification compared with other pandemic outcome measures. Following the definitions, total excess mortality for the years 2020-2022 was 11,897 individuals in Sweden and 6089 in Norway. However, the distributions of excess mortality across the 3 years strongly differed. In Sweden, 60% of excess mortality was observed in 2020, 8% in 2021 and 32% in 2022. In sharp contrast, 0% of excess mortality was observed in Norway in 2020, 20% in 2021 and 80% in 2022. If the relative distribution of excess mortality in Sweden had been the same as in Norway in 2020-2022, approximately 7000 individuals who died in 2020 would instead have died as excess mortality in 2022, saving approximately 14,000 person-years in Sweden.
CONCLUSIONS: The report disregards residual confounding due to the broad definition of the period 2020-2022. Mass media should avoid one-sided reporting..
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2024 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Scandinavian journal of public health - (2024) vom: 18. März, Seite 14034948241239353 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Lindström, Martin [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Coronavirus |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 19.03.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status Publisher |
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| doi: |
10.1177/14034948241239353 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM369896254 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Sweden's excess mortality in 2020-2022 and reporting in the media |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 19.03.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status Publisher | ||
| 520 | |a AIM: The aim was to scrutinize the report in March 2023 that Sweden's excess mortality was lowest in 2020-2022 compared with other European Union and Nordic countries, a report that received great national and international attention | ||
| 520 | |a STUDY DESIGN: Comparison of excess mortality in Sweden and Norway | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: Excess mortality for 2020-2022 was calculated for Sweden and Norway, the country with per-capita excess mortality closest to Sweden's, compared with the average mortality for 2017-2019 in the respective country, following the definitions by Statistics Sweden reported in a daily newspaper | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: Excess mortality is a measure with low misclassification compared with other pandemic outcome measures. Following the definitions, total excess mortality for the years 2020-2022 was 11,897 individuals in Sweden and 6089 in Norway. However, the distributions of excess mortality across the 3 years strongly differed. In Sweden, 60% of excess mortality was observed in 2020, 8% in 2021 and 32% in 2022. In sharp contrast, 0% of excess mortality was observed in Norway in 2020, 20% in 2021 and 80% in 2022. If the relative distribution of excess mortality in Sweden had been the same as in Norway in 2020-2022, approximately 7000 individuals who died in 2020 would instead have died as excess mortality in 2022, saving approximately 14,000 person-years in Sweden | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: The report disregards residual confounding due to the broad definition of the period 2020-2022. Mass media should avoid one-sided reporting. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Public Health Agency | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Sweden | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Swedish strategy | |
| 650 | 4 | |a coronavirus | |
| 650 | 4 | |a excess mortality | |
| 650 | 4 | |a mass media | |
| 650 | 4 | |a pandemic | |
| 650 | 4 | |a residual confounding | |
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