Development and external validation of a home-based risk predicTion modEl of natUral onseT of menopAuse -TEUTA
© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society..
OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a 10-year risk prediction model of natural onset of menopause using ready-to-use predictors.
DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study.
PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling, premenopausal women aged 28 years and older enrolled in the Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) study.
MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of self-reported natural menopause.
MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Based on existing literature, 11 predictors were tested in this study. The CoLaus cohort was used to develop the model by applying the backward-elimination approach and Bayesian Model Averaging. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. External validation was performed using data from the PREVEND cohort and recalibrating the baseline survival estimate. C-statistic, calibration slopes, and expected/observed probabilities were calculated as measures of model internal and/or external performances.
RESULTS: The final analysis included 750 and 1032 premenopausal women from the CoLaus and the PREVEND cohort, respectively. Among them, 445 (59%) from CoLaus and 387 (38%) from PREVEND experienced menopause over a median follow-up of 10.7 and 9 years, respectively. The final model included age, alcohol consumption, smoking status, education level, and systolic blood pressure. Upon external calibration in the PREVEND cohort, the model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.888 and an expected/observed probability of 0.82.
CONCLUSIONS: We present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2024 |
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| Enthalten in: |
The Journal of clinical endocrinology and metabolism - (2024) vom: 05. März |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Kastrati, Lum [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 05.03.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status Publisher |
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| doi: |
10.1210/clinem/dgae125 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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NLM369325753 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Kastrati, Lum |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Development and external validation of a home-based risk predicTion modEl of natUral onseT of menopAuse -TEUTA |
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| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status Publisher | ||
| 520 | |a © The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society. | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVE: To develop and externally validate a 10-year risk prediction model of natural onset of menopause using ready-to-use predictors | ||
| 520 | |a DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study | ||
| 520 | |a PARTICIPANTS: Community-dwelling, premenopausal women aged 28 years and older enrolled in the Swiss (CoLaus) and Dutch (PREVEND) study | ||
| 520 | |a MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Incidence of self-reported natural menopause | ||
| 520 | |a MODEL DEVELOPMENT: Based on existing literature, 11 predictors were tested in this study. The CoLaus cohort was used to develop the model by applying the backward-elimination approach and Bayesian Model Averaging. Internal validation was performed by bootstrapping. External validation was performed using data from the PREVEND cohort and recalibrating the baseline survival estimate. C-statistic, calibration slopes, and expected/observed probabilities were calculated as measures of model internal and/or external performances | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: The final analysis included 750 and 1032 premenopausal women from the CoLaus and the PREVEND cohort, respectively. Among them, 445 (59%) from CoLaus and 387 (38%) from PREVEND experienced menopause over a median follow-up of 10.7 and 9 years, respectively. The final model included age, alcohol consumption, smoking status, education level, and systolic blood pressure. Upon external calibration in the PREVEND cohort, the model exhibited good discrimination, with a C-statistic of 0.888 and an expected/observed probability of 0.82 | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: We present the first internally and externally validated prediction model of natural menopause onset using readily available predictors. Validation of our model to other populations is needed | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Family Planning | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Menopause | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Prediction | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Validation | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Vidal, Pedro Marques |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dhana, Klodian |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bally, Lia |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lambrinoudaki, Irene |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Groothof, Dion |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bakker, Stephan J L |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Eisenga, Michele F |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Muka, Taulant |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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