Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels
© 2024. The Author(s)..
Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:15 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Nature communications - 15(2024), 1 vom: 27. Feb., Seite 1796 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Chen, Kai [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 29.02.2024 Date Revised 20.03.2024 published: Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM369035763 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM369035763 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20240320234418.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 240229s2024 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1337.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM369035763 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)38413648 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Chen, Kai |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Impact of population aging on future temperature-related mortality at different global warming levels |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2024 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 29.02.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 20.03.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2024. The Author(s). | ||
| 520 | |a Older adults are generally amongst the most vulnerable to heat and cold. While temperature-related health impacts are projected to increase with global warming, the influence of population aging on these trends remains unclear. Here we show that at 1.5 °C, 2 °C, and 3 °C of global warming, heat-related mortality in 800 locations across 50 countries/areas will increase by 0.5%, 1.0%, and 2.5%, respectively; among which 1 in 5 to 1 in 4 heat-related deaths can be attributed to population aging. Despite a projected decrease in cold-related mortality due to progressive warming alone, population aging will mostly counteract this trend, leading to a net increase in cold-related mortality by 0.1%-0.4% at 1.5-3 °C global warming. Our findings indicate that population aging constitutes a crucial driver for future heat- and cold-related deaths, with increasing mortality burden for both heat and cold due to the aging population | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 700 | 1 | |a de Schrijver, Evan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sivaraj, Sidharth |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sera, Francesco |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Scovronick, Noah |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Jiang, Leiwen |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Roye, Dominic |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lavigne, Eric |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kyselý, Jan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Urban, Aleš |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Schneider, Alexandra |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Huber, Veronika |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Madureira, Joana |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mistry, Malcolm N |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cvijanovic, Ivana |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 0 | |a MCC Collaborative Research Network |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gasparrini, Antonio |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Armstrong, Ben |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Schneider, Rochelle |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tobias, Aurelio |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Astrom, Christofer |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Guo, Yuming |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Honda, Yasushi |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Abrutzky, Rosana |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tong, Shilu |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, Micheline |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Correa, Patricia Matus |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ortega, Nicolás Valdés |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kan, Haidong |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Osorio, Samuel |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Orru, Hans |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Indermitte, Ene |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Jaakkola, Jouni J K |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ryti, Niilo |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Pascal, Mathilde |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Katsouyanni, Klea |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Analitis, Antonis |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Mayvaneh, Fatemeh |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Entezari, Alireza |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Goodman, Patrick |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zeka, Ariana |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Michelozzi, Paola |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a de'Donato, Francesca |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hashizume, Masahiro |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Alahmad, Barrak |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Diaz, Magali Hurtado |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a De la Cruz Valencia, César |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Overcenco, Ala |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Houthuijs, Danny |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ameling, Caroline |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rao, Shilpa |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Carrasco-Escobar, Gabriel |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Seposo, Xerxes |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a da Silva, Susana Pereira |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Holobaca, Iulian Horia |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Acquaotta, Fiorella |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kim, Ho |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lee, Whanhee |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Íñiguez, Carmen |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Forsberg, Bertil |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ragettli, Martina S |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Guo, Yue-Liang Leon |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Pan, Shih-Chun |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Shanshan |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Colistro, Valentina |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zanobetti, Antonella |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Schwartz, Joel |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dang, Tran Ngoc |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Van Dung, Do |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Carlsen, Hanne Krage |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cauchi, John Paul |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Achilleos, Souzana |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Raz, Raanan |e investigator |4 oth | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Nature communications |d 2010 |g 15(2024), 1 vom: 27. Feb., Seite 1796 |w (DE-627)NLM199274525 |x 2041-1723 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:15 |g year:2024 |g number:1 |g day:27 |g month:02 |g pages:1796 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-45901-z |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 15 |j 2024 |e 1 |b 27 |c 02 |h 1796 | ||