Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy : a simulation study from Mexico
© 2024 Published by Elsevier Ltd..
Background: The underlying health status of populations was a major determinant of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly obesity prevalence. Mexico was one of the most severely affected countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and its obesity prevalence is among the highest in the world. It is unknown by how much the COVID-19 burden could have been reduced if systemic actions had been implemented to reduce excess weight in Mexico before the onset of the pandemic.
Methods: Using a dynamic epidemic model based on nationwide data, we compare actual deaths with those under hypothetical scenarios assuming a lower body mass index in the Mexican population, as observed historically. We also model the number of deaths that would have been averted due to earlier implementation of front-of-pack warning labels or due to increases in taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and non-essential high-energy foods in Mexico.
Findings: We estimate that 52.5% (95% prediction interval (PI) 43.2, 61.6%) of COVID-19 deaths were attributable to obesity for adults aged 20-64 and 23.8% (95% PI 18.7, 29.1%) for those aged 65 and over. Had the population BMI distribution remained as it was in 2000, 2006, or 2012, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 20.6% (95% PI 16.9, 24.6%), 9.9% (95% PI 7.3, 12.9%), or 6.9% (95% PI 4.5, 9.5%), respectively. If the food-labelling intervention introduced in 2020 had been introduced in 2018, an expected 6.2% (95% PI 5.2, 7.3%) of COVID-19 deaths would have been averted. If taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy foods had been doubled, trebled, or quadrupled in 2018, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 4.1% (95% PI 2.5, 5.7%), 7.9% (95% PI 4.9, 11.0%), or 11.6% (95% PI 7.3, 15.8%), respectively.
Interpretation: Public health interventions targeting underlying population health, including non-communicable chronic diseases, is a promising line of action for pandemic preparedness that should be included in all pandemic plans.
Funding: This study received funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, awarded to Juan A. Rivera from the National Institute of Public Health; Community Jameel, the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), Kenneth C Griffin, and the World Health Organization.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:30 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Lancet regional health. Americas - 30(2024) vom: 15. Feb., Seite 100682 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Johnson, Rob [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
BMI |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 10.02.2024 published: Electronic-eCollection Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1016/j.lana.2024.100682 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM368224228 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM368224228 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20240210233355.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 240209s2024 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1016/j.lana.2024.100682 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1287.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM368224228 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)38332937 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Johnson, Rob |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Promoting healthy populations as a pandemic preparedness strategy |b a simulation study from Mexico |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2024 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 10.02.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic-eCollection | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2024 Published by Elsevier Ltd. | ||
| 520 | |a Background: The underlying health status of populations was a major determinant of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly obesity prevalence. Mexico was one of the most severely affected countries during the COVID-19 pandemic and its obesity prevalence is among the highest in the world. It is unknown by how much the COVID-19 burden could have been reduced if systemic actions had been implemented to reduce excess weight in Mexico before the onset of the pandemic | ||
| 520 | |a Methods: Using a dynamic epidemic model based on nationwide data, we compare actual deaths with those under hypothetical scenarios assuming a lower body mass index in the Mexican population, as observed historically. We also model the number of deaths that would have been averted due to earlier implementation of front-of-pack warning labels or due to increases in taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and non-essential high-energy foods in Mexico | ||
| 520 | |a Findings: We estimate that 52.5% (95% prediction interval (PI) 43.2, 61.6%) of COVID-19 deaths were attributable to obesity for adults aged 20-64 and 23.8% (95% PI 18.7, 29.1%) for those aged 65 and over. Had the population BMI distribution remained as it was in 2000, 2006, or 2012, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 20.6% (95% PI 16.9, 24.6%), 9.9% (95% PI 7.3, 12.9%), or 6.9% (95% PI 4.5, 9.5%), respectively. If the food-labelling intervention introduced in 2020 had been introduced in 2018, an expected 6.2% (95% PI 5.2, 7.3%) of COVID-19 deaths would have been averted. If taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages and high-energy foods had been doubled, trebled, or quadrupled in 2018, COVID-19 deaths would have been reduced by an expected 4.1% (95% PI 2.5, 5.7%), 7.9% (95% PI 4.9, 11.0%), or 11.6% (95% PI 7.3, 15.8%), respectively | ||
| 520 | |a Interpretation: Public health interventions targeting underlying population health, including non-communicable chronic diseases, is a promising line of action for pandemic preparedness that should be included in all pandemic plans | ||
| 520 | |a Funding: This study received funding from Bloomberg Philanthropies, awarded to Juan A. Rivera from the National Institute of Public Health; Community Jameel, the UK Medical Research Council (MRC), Kenneth C Griffin, and the World Health Organization | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a BMI | |
| 650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Epidemic response plan | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Obesity | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Pandemic preparedness | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Population health | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Carnalla, Martha |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Basto-Abreu, Ana |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Haw, David |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Morgenstern, Christian |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Doohan, Patrick |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Forchini, Giovanni |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hauck, Katharina D |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Barrientos-Gutiérrez, Tonatiuh |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Lancet regional health. Americas |d 2021 |g 30(2024) vom: 15. Feb., Seite 100682 |w (DE-627)NLM329305697 |x 2667-193X |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:30 |g year:2024 |g day:15 |g month:02 |g pages:100682 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.lana.2024.100682 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 30 |j 2024 |b 15 |c 02 |h 100682 | ||