Estimated Excess Deaths Due to COVID-19 Among the Urban Population of Mainland China, December 2022 to January 2023
Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved..
BACKGROUND: Mainland China experienced a major surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections in December 2022-January 2023, but its impact on mortality was unclear given the underreporting of coronavirus disease 2019 deaths.
METHODS: Using obituary data from the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), we estimated the excess death rate among senior CAE members by taking the difference between the observed rate of all-cause death in December 2022-January 2023 and the expected rate for the same months in 2017-2022, by age groups. We used this to extrapolate an estimate of the number of excess deaths in December 2022-January 2023 among urban dwellers in Mainland China.
RESULTS: In December 2022-January 2023, we estimated excess death rates of 0.94 per 100 persons (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.54, 3.16) in CAE members aged 80-84 years, 3.95 (95% CI = 0.50, 7.84) in 85-89 years, 10.35 (95% CI = 3.59, 17.71) in 90-94 years, and 16.88 (95% CI = 0.00, 34.62) in 95 years and older. Using our baseline assumptions, this extrapolated to 917,000 (95% CI = 425,000, 1.45 million) excess deaths among urban dwellers in Mainland China, much higher than the 81,000 in-hospital deaths officially reported from 9 December 2022 to 30 January 2023.
CONCLUSIONS: As in many jurisdictions, we estimate that the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic had a much wider impact on mortality than what was officially documented in Mainland China.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:35 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) - 35(2024), 3 vom: 01. Apr., Seite 372-376 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Raphson, Leon [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 18.04.2024 Date Revised 25.04.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1097/EDE.0000000000001723 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM367894165 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM367894165 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20240425232807.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 240201s2024 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1097/EDE.0000000000001723 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1386.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM367894165 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)38300113 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Raphson, Leon |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Estimated Excess Deaths Due to COVID-19 Among the Urban Population of Mainland China, December 2022 to January 2023 |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2024 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 18.04.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 25.04.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2024 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved. | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: Mainland China experienced a major surge in SARS-CoV-2 infections in December 2022-January 2023, but its impact on mortality was unclear given the underreporting of coronavirus disease 2019 deaths | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: Using obituary data from the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), we estimated the excess death rate among senior CAE members by taking the difference between the observed rate of all-cause death in December 2022-January 2023 and the expected rate for the same months in 2017-2022, by age groups. We used this to extrapolate an estimate of the number of excess deaths in December 2022-January 2023 among urban dwellers in Mainland China | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: In December 2022-January 2023, we estimated excess death rates of 0.94 per 100 persons (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.54, 3.16) in CAE members aged 80-84 years, 3.95 (95% CI = 0.50, 7.84) in 85-89 years, 10.35 (95% CI = 3.59, 17.71) in 90-94 years, and 16.88 (95% CI = 0.00, 34.62) in 95 years and older. Using our baseline assumptions, this extrapolated to 917,000 (95% CI = 425,000, 1.45 million) excess deaths among urban dwellers in Mainland China, much higher than the 81,000 in-hospital deaths officially reported from 9 December 2022 to 30 January 2023 | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: As in many jurisdictions, we estimate that the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic had a much wider impact on mortality than what was officially documented in Mainland China | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lipsitch, Marc |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) |d 1990 |g 35(2024), 3 vom: 01. Apr., Seite 372-376 |w (DE-627)NLM012782076 |x 1531-5487 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:35 |g year:2024 |g number:3 |g day:01 |g month:04 |g pages:372-376 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/EDE.0000000000001723 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 35 |j 2024 |e 3 |b 01 |c 04 |h 372-376 | ||