Long-Term Risk of Arterial Thrombosis After Intracerebral Hemorrhage : MUCH-Italy
BACKGROUND: The identification of patients surviving an acute intracerebral hemorrhage who are at a long-term risk of arterial thrombosis is a poorly defined, crucial issue for clinicians.
METHODS: In the setting of the MUCH-Italy (Multicenter Study on Cerebral Haemorrhage in Italy) prospective observational cohort, we enrolled and followed up consecutive 30-day intracerebral hemorrhage survivors to assess the long-term incidence of arterial thrombotic events, to assess the impact of clinical and radiological variables on the risk of these events, and to develop a tool for estimating such a risk at the individual level. Primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or other arterial thrombotic events. A point-scoring system was generated by the β-coefficients of the variables independently associated with the long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, and the predictive MUCH score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores.
RESULTS: Overall, 1729 patients (median follow-up time, 43 months [25th to 75th percentile, 69.0]) qualified for inclusion. Arterial thrombotic events occurred in 169 (9.7%) patients. Male sex, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, and personal history of coronary artery disease were associated with increased long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, whereas the use of statins and antithrombotic medications after the acute intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with a reduced risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MUCH score predictive validity was 0.716 (95% CI, 0.56-0.81) for the 0- to 1-year score, 0.672 (95% CI, 0.58-0.73) for the 0- to 5-year score, and 0.744 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81) for the 0- to 10-year score. C statistic for the prediction of events that occur from 0 to 10 years was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.74).
CONCLUSIONS: Intracerebral hemorrhage survivors are at high long-term risk of arterial thrombosis. The MUCH score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:55 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Stroke - 55(2024), 3 vom: 18. März, Seite 634-642 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Area under curve |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 27.02.2024 Date Revised 11.03.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1161/STROKEAHA.123.044626 |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: The identification of patients surviving an acute intracerebral hemorrhage who are at a long-term risk of arterial thrombosis is a poorly defined, crucial issue for clinicians | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: In the setting of the MUCH-Italy (Multicenter Study on Cerebral Haemorrhage in Italy) prospective observational cohort, we enrolled and followed up consecutive 30-day intracerebral hemorrhage survivors to assess the long-term incidence of arterial thrombotic events, to assess the impact of clinical and radiological variables on the risk of these events, and to develop a tool for estimating such a risk at the individual level. Primary end point was a composite of ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or other arterial thrombotic events. A point-scoring system was generated by the β-coefficients of the variables independently associated with the long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, and the predictive MUCH score was calculated as the sum of the weighted scores | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: Overall, 1729 patients (median follow-up time, 43 months [25th to 75th percentile, 69.0]) qualified for inclusion. Arterial thrombotic events occurred in 169 (9.7%) patients. Male sex, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, atrial fibrillation, and personal history of coronary artery disease were associated with increased long-term risk of arterial thrombosis, whereas the use of statins and antithrombotic medications after the acute intracerebral hemorrhage was associated with a reduced risk. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the MUCH score predictive validity was 0.716 (95% CI, 0.56-0.81) for the 0- to 1-year score, 0.672 (95% CI, 0.58-0.73) for the 0- to 5-year score, and 0.744 (95% CI, 0.65-0.81) for the 0- to 10-year score. C statistic for the prediction of events that occur from 0 to 10 years was 0.69 (95% CI, 0.64-0.74) | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: Intracerebral hemorrhage survivors are at high long-term risk of arterial thrombosis. The MUCH score may serve as a simple tool for risk estimation | ||
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