Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission : a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China
Copyright © 2023 Cheng, Jing, Collender, Head, Li, Yu, Li, Ju, Chen, Wang, Cleary and Lai..
Introduction: Given the rapid geographic spread of dengue and the growing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, it is imperative to understand the relationship between these phenomena in order to propose effective interventions. However, studies exploring the association between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk have reached conflicting conclusions, potentially due to the neglect of prior water availability in mosquito breeding sites as an effect modifier.
Methods: In this study, we addressed this research gap by considering the impact of prior water availability for the first time. We measured prior water availability as the cumulative precipitation over the preceding 8 weeks and utilized a distributed lag non-linear model stratified by the level of prior water availability to examine the association between dengue infection risk and heavy rainfall in Guangzhou, a dengue transmission hotspot in southern China.
Results: Our findings suggest that the effects of heavy rainfall are likely to be modified by prior water availability. A 24-55 day lagged impact of heavy rainfall was associated with an increase in dengue risk when prior water availability was low, with the greatest incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.37 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.02-1.83] occurring at a lag of 27 days. In contrast, a heavy rainfall lag of 7-121 days decreased dengue risk when prior water availability was high, with the lowest IRR of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.43-0.79), occurring at a lag of 45 days.
Discussion: These findings may help to reconcile the inconsistent conclusions reached by previous studies and improve our understanding of the complex relationship between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk.
| Errataetall: | |
|---|---|
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:11 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Frontiers in public health - 11(2023) vom: 04., Seite 1287678 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Cheng, Qu [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
059QF0KO0R |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 19.12.2023 Date Revised 30.04.2024 published: Electronic-eCollection UpdateOf: Res Sq. 2023 Aug 31;:. - PMID 37693392 Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.3389/fpubh.2023.1287678 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM365975907 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM365975907 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20240430231958.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231227s2023 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1287678 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1393.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM365975907 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)38106890 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Cheng, Qu |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Prior water availability modifies the effect of heavy rainfall on dengue transmission |b a time series analysis of passive surveillance data from southern China |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2023 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 19.12.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 30.04.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic-eCollection | ||
| 500 | |a UpdateOf: Res Sq. 2023 Aug 31;:. - PMID 37693392 | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2023 Cheng, Jing, Collender, Head, Li, Yu, Li, Ju, Chen, Wang, Cleary and Lai. | ||
| 520 | |a Introduction: Given the rapid geographic spread of dengue and the growing frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events, it is imperative to understand the relationship between these phenomena in order to propose effective interventions. However, studies exploring the association between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk have reached conflicting conclusions, potentially due to the neglect of prior water availability in mosquito breeding sites as an effect modifier | ||
| 520 | |a Methods: In this study, we addressed this research gap by considering the impact of prior water availability for the first time. We measured prior water availability as the cumulative precipitation over the preceding 8 weeks and utilized a distributed lag non-linear model stratified by the level of prior water availability to examine the association between dengue infection risk and heavy rainfall in Guangzhou, a dengue transmission hotspot in southern China | ||
| 520 | |a Results: Our findings suggest that the effects of heavy rainfall are likely to be modified by prior water availability. A 24-55 day lagged impact of heavy rainfall was associated with an increase in dengue risk when prior water availability was low, with the greatest incidence rate ratio (IRR) of 1.37 [95% credible interval (CI): 1.02-1.83] occurring at a lag of 27 days. In contrast, a heavy rainfall lag of 7-121 days decreased dengue risk when prior water availability was high, with the lowest IRR of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.43-0.79), occurring at a lag of 45 days | ||
| 520 | |a Discussion: These findings may help to reconcile the inconsistent conclusions reached by previous studies and improve our understanding of the complex relationship between heavy rainfall and dengue infection risk | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
| 650 | 4 | |a DLNM | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Guangzhou | |
| 650 | 4 | |a dengue | |
| 650 | 4 | |a heavy rainfall events | |
| 650 | 4 | |a prior water availability | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Water |2 NLM | |
| 650 | 7 | |a 059QF0KO0R |2 NLM | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Jing, Qinlong |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Collender, Philip A |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Head, Jennifer R |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Qi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yu, Hailan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Li, Zhichao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ju, Yang |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen, Tianmu |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Peng |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cleary, Eimear |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lai, Shengjie |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Frontiers in public health |d 2013 |g 11(2023) vom: 04., Seite 1287678 |w (DE-627)NLM23377548X |x 2296-2565 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:11 |g year:2023 |g day:04 |g pages:1287678 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2023.1287678 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 11 |j 2023 |b 04 |h 1287678 | ||