Assessing the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia during 2022-2023 : A focus on Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea
Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Ltd..
OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia, focusing on the hardest hit nations: Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea.
METHODS: We utilized six phenomenological dynamic growth models to fit the case incidence during the initial 30 epidemic days. The best-fit model was selected to calculate the reproduction number (Rt ). Additionally, we used the latest case data and a Bayesian framework to compute the instantaneous effective Rt by applying the Cori et al..
METHOD:.
RESULTS: During the early phase, China demonstrated the highest estimated Rt of 2.89 (95% CI: 1.44-3.33); followed by South Korea, 2.18 (95% CI: 0.96-3.57); Japan, 1.73 (95% CI: 0.66-3.94); and Taiwan, 1.36 (95% CI: 0.71-3.30). However, by June 30, 2023, estimated Rt dropped below 1.00 in all countries: China at 0.05 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.02-0.10), Japan at 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.15-0.59), South Korea at 0.23 (95% CrI: 0.11-0.42), and Taiwan at 0.41 (95% CrI: 0.31-0.53), indicating the potential decline of the outbreak..
CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis shows effective containment by each country. It is crucial to sustain effective management to ensure the ultimate eradication of the outbreak.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:138 |
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| Enthalten in: |
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases - 138(2024) vom: 25. Jan., Seite 110-112 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Kim, Minjin [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
China |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 18.12.2023 Date Revised 03.01.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1016/j.ijid.2023.11.015 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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NLM36499567X |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Assessing the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia during 2022-2023 |b A focus on Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 03.01.2024 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2023. Published by Elsevier Ltd. | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVES: This study aims to estimate the transmission potential of mpox in East Asia, focusing on the hardest hit nations: Taiwan, China, Japan, and South Korea | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: We utilized six phenomenological dynamic growth models to fit the case incidence during the initial 30 epidemic days. The best-fit model was selected to calculate the reproduction number (Rt ). Additionally, we used the latest case data and a Bayesian framework to compute the instantaneous effective Rt by applying the Cori et al. | ||
| 520 | |a METHOD: | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: During the early phase, China demonstrated the highest estimated Rt of 2.89 (95% CI: 1.44-3.33); followed by South Korea, 2.18 (95% CI: 0.96-3.57); Japan, 1.73 (95% CI: 0.66-3.94); and Taiwan, 1.36 (95% CI: 0.71-3.30). However, by June 30, 2023, estimated Rt dropped below 1.00 in all countries: China at 0.05 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.02-0.10), Japan at 0.32 (95% CrI: 0.15-0.59), South Korea at 0.23 (95% CrI: 0.11-0.42), and Taiwan at 0.41 (95% CrI: 0.31-0.53), indicating the potential decline of the outbreak. | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis shows effective containment by each country. It is crucial to sustain effective management to ensure the ultimate eradication of the outbreak | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a China | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Japan | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mpox | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Reproduction number | |
| 650 | 4 | |a South Korea | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Taiwan | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Shim, Eunha |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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