Two-phase Bayesian latent class analysis to assess diagnostic test performance in the absence of a gold standard : COVID-19 serological assays as a proof of concept
© 2023 International Society of Blood Transfusion..
BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In this proof-of-concept study, which included blood donor samples, we aimed to demonstrate how Bayesian latent class models (BLCMs) could be used to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the absence of a gold standard assay under a two-phase sampling design.
MATERIALS AND METHODS: To this end, 6810 plasma samples from blood donors who resided in Québec (Canada) were collected from May to July 2020 and tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using seven serological assays (five commercial and two non-commercial).
RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was estimated at 0.71% (95% credible interval [CrI] = 0.53%-0.92%). The cPass assay had the lowest sensitivity estimate (88.7%; 95% CrI = 80.6%-94.7%), while the Héma-Québec assay had the highest (98.7%; 95% CrI = 97.0%-99.6%).
CONCLUSION: The estimated low seroprevalence (which indicates a relatively limited spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Quebec) might change rapidly-and this tool, developed using blood donors, could enable a rapid update of the prevalence estimate in the absence of a gold standard. Further, the present analysis illustrates how a two-stage BLCM sampling design, along with blood donor samples, can be used to estimate the performance of new diagnostic tests and inform public health decisions regarding a new or emerging disease for which a perfect reference standard does not exist.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:118 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Vox sanguinis - 118(2023), 12 vom: 06. Dez., Seite 1069-1077 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Camirand Lemyre, Felix [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Antibodies, Viral |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 16.12.2023 Date Revised 16.12.2023 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1111/vox.13545 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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NLM363428151 |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 16.12.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2023 International Society of Blood Transfusion. | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In this proof-of-concept study, which included blood donor samples, we aimed to demonstrate how Bayesian latent class models (BLCMs) could be used to estimate SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the absence of a gold standard assay under a two-phase sampling design | ||
| 520 | |a MATERIALS AND METHODS: To this end, 6810 plasma samples from blood donors who resided in Québec (Canada) were collected from May to July 2020 and tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies using seven serological assays (five commercial and two non-commercial) | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was estimated at 0.71% (95% credible interval [CrI] = 0.53%-0.92%). The cPass assay had the lowest sensitivity estimate (88.7%; 95% CrI = 80.6%-94.7%), while the Héma-Québec assay had the highest (98.7%; 95% CrI = 97.0%-99.6%) | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSION: The estimated low seroprevalence (which indicates a relatively limited spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Quebec) might change rapidly-and this tool, developed using blood donors, could enable a rapid update of the prevalence estimate in the absence of a gold standard. Further, the present analysis illustrates how a two-stage BLCM sampling design, along with blood donor samples, can be used to estimate the performance of new diagnostic tests and inform public health decisions regarding a new or emerging disease for which a perfect reference standard does not exist | ||
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