Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics : SARS-CoV-2 as a case study
In the era of living with COVID-19, the risk of localised SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks remains. Here, we develop a multiscale modelling framework for estimating the local outbreak risk for a viral disease (the probability that a major outbreak results from a single case introduced into the population), accounting for within-host viral dynamics. Compared to population-level models previously used to estimate outbreak risks, our approach enables more detailed analysis of how the risk can be mitigated through pre-emptive interventions such as antigen testing. Considering SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we quantify the within-host dynamics using data from individuals with omicron variant infections. We demonstrate that regular antigen testing reduces, but may not eliminate, the outbreak risk, depending on characteristics of local transmission. In our baseline analysis, daily antigen testing reduces the outbreak risk by 45% compared to a scenario without antigen testing. Additionally, we show that accounting for heterogeneity in within-host dynamics between individuals affects outbreak risk estimates and assessments of the impact of antigen testing. Our results therefore highlight important factors to consider when using multiscale models to design pre-emptive interventions against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:120 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - 120(2023), 41 vom: 10. Okt., Seite e2305451120 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Hart, William S [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Antigen testing |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 05.10.2023 Date Revised 17.10.2023 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1073/pnas.2305451120 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM362820902 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Hart, William S |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Analysis of the risk and pre-emptive control of viral outbreaks accounting for within-host dynamics |b SARS-CoV-2 as a case study |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 17.10.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a In the era of living with COVID-19, the risk of localised SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks remains. Here, we develop a multiscale modelling framework for estimating the local outbreak risk for a viral disease (the probability that a major outbreak results from a single case introduced into the population), accounting for within-host viral dynamics. Compared to population-level models previously used to estimate outbreak risks, our approach enables more detailed analysis of how the risk can be mitigated through pre-emptive interventions such as antigen testing. Considering SARS-CoV-2 as a case study, we quantify the within-host dynamics using data from individuals with omicron variant infections. We demonstrate that regular antigen testing reduces, but may not eliminate, the outbreak risk, depending on characteristics of local transmission. In our baseline analysis, daily antigen testing reduces the outbreak risk by 45% compared to a scenario without antigen testing. Additionally, we show that accounting for heterogeneity in within-host dynamics between individuals affects outbreak risk estimates and assessments of the impact of antigen testing. Our results therefore highlight important factors to consider when using multiscale models to design pre-emptive interventions against SARS-CoV-2 and other viruses | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a antigen testing | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a outbreak risk | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Park, Hyeongki |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Jeong, Yong Dam |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kim, Kwang Su |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yoshimura, Raiki |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Thompson, Robin N |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Iwami, Shingo |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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