The role of regular asymptomatic testing in reducing the impact of a COVID-19 wave
Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved..
Testing for infection with SARS-CoV-2 is an important intervention in reducing onwards transmission of COVID-19, particularly when combined with the isolation and contact-tracing of positive cases. Many countries with the capacity to do so have made use of lab-processed Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) testing targeted at individuals with symptoms and the contacts of confirmed cases. Alternatively, Lateral Flow Tests (LFTs) are able to deliver a result quickly, without lab-processing and at a relatively low cost. Their adoption can support regular mass asymptomatic testing, allowing earlier detection of infection and isolation of infectious individuals. In this paper we extend and apply the agent-based epidemic modelling framework Covasim to explore the impact of regular asymptomatic testing on the peak and total number of infections in an emerging COVID-19 wave. We explore testing with LFTs at different frequency levels within a population with high levels of immunity and with background symptomatic PCR testing, case isolation and contact tracing for testing. The effectiveness of regular asymptomatic testing was compared with 'lockdown' interventions seeking to reduce the number of non-household contacts across the whole population through measures such as mandating working from home and restrictions on gatherings. Since regular asymptomatic testing requires only those with a positive result to reduce contact, while lockdown measures require the whole population to reduce contact, any policy decision that seeks to trade off harms from infection against other harms will not automatically favour one over the other. Our results demonstrate that, where such a trade off is being made, at moderate rates of early exponential growth regular asymptomatic testing has the potential to achieve significant infection control without the wider harms associated with additional lockdown measures.
Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
---|
Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
---|---|
Erschienen: |
2023 |
Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:44 |
---|---|
Enthalten in: |
Epidemics - 44(2023) vom: 07. Sept., Seite 100699 |
Sprache: |
Englisch |
---|
Beteiligte Personen: |
Silva, Miguel E P [VerfasserIn] |
---|
Links: |
---|
Themen: |
Individual based model |
---|
Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 08.09.2023 Date Revised 14.02.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
---|
doi: |
10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100699 |
---|
funding: |
|
---|---|
Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM360158234 |
---|
LEADER | 01000caa a22002652 4500 | ||
---|---|---|---|
001 | NLM360158234 | ||
003 | DE-627 | ||
005 | 20240214232740.0 | ||
007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
008 | 231226s2023 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
024 | 7 | |a 10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100699 |2 doi | |
028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1292.xml |
035 | |a (DE-627)NLM360158234 | ||
035 | |a (NLM)37515954 | ||
035 | |a (PII)S1755-4365(23)00035-X | ||
040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
041 | |a eng | ||
100 | 1 | |a Silva, Miguel E P |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
245 | 1 | 4 | |a The role of regular asymptomatic testing in reducing the impact of a COVID-19 wave |
264 | 1 | |c 2023 | |
336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
500 | |a Date Completed 08.09.2023 | ||
500 | |a Date Revised 14.02.2024 | ||
500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
520 | |a Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. | ||
520 | |a Testing for infection with SARS-CoV-2 is an important intervention in reducing onwards transmission of COVID-19, particularly when combined with the isolation and contact-tracing of positive cases. Many countries with the capacity to do so have made use of lab-processed Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) testing targeted at individuals with symptoms and the contacts of confirmed cases. Alternatively, Lateral Flow Tests (LFTs) are able to deliver a result quickly, without lab-processing and at a relatively low cost. Their adoption can support regular mass asymptomatic testing, allowing earlier detection of infection and isolation of infectious individuals. In this paper we extend and apply the agent-based epidemic modelling framework Covasim to explore the impact of regular asymptomatic testing on the peak and total number of infections in an emerging COVID-19 wave. We explore testing with LFTs at different frequency levels within a population with high levels of immunity and with background symptomatic PCR testing, case isolation and contact tracing for testing. The effectiveness of regular asymptomatic testing was compared with 'lockdown' interventions seeking to reduce the number of non-household contacts across the whole population through measures such as mandating working from home and restrictions on gatherings. Since regular asymptomatic testing requires only those with a positive result to reduce contact, while lockdown measures require the whole population to reduce contact, any policy decision that seeks to trade off harms from infection against other harms will not automatically favour one over the other. Our results demonstrate that, where such a trade off is being made, at moderate rates of early exponential growth regular asymptomatic testing has the potential to achieve significant infection control without the wider harms associated with additional lockdown measures | ||
650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
650 | 4 | |a Individual based model | |
650 | 4 | |a Lateral flow device | |
650 | 4 | |a Polymerase chain reaction | |
650 | 4 | |a Rapid antigen test | |
650 | 4 | |a SARS-CoV-2 | |
700 | 1 | |a Fyles, Martyn |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Pi, Li |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Panovska-Griffiths, Jasmina |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a House, Thomas |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Jay, Caroline |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
700 | 1 | |a Fearon, Elizabeth |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Epidemics |d 2009 |g 44(2023) vom: 07. Sept., Seite 100699 |w (DE-627)NLM195150589 |x 1878-0067 |7 nnns |
773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:44 |g year:2023 |g day:07 |g month:09 |g pages:100699 |
856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.epidem.2023.100699 |3 Volltext |
912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
951 | |a AR | ||
952 | |d 44 |j 2023 |b 07 |c 09 |h 100699 |