Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate
© 2023. The Author(s)..
Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models' ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more of the occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for the landfalling EARs, by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will be reduced in a warming climate, potentially influencing the predictability of future EARs.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:14 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Nature communications - 14(2023), 1 vom: 03. Juni, Seite 3219 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Wang, Shuyu [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 04.06.2023 Date Revised 06.06.2023 published: Electronic Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1038/s41467-023-38980-x |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM357726359 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Extreme atmospheric rivers in a warming climate |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 06.06.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2023. The Author(s). | ||
| 520 | |a Extreme atmospheric rivers (EARs) are responsible for most of the severe precipitation and disastrous flooding along the coastal regions in midlatitudes. However, the current non-eddy-resolving climate models severely underestimate (~50%) EARs, casting significant uncertainties on their future projections. Here, using an unprecedented set of eddy-resolving high-resolution simulations from the Community Earth System Model simulations, we show that the models' ability of simulating EARs is significantly improved (despite a slight overestimate of ~10%) and the EARs are projected to increase almost linearly with temperature warming. Under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 warming scenario, there will be a global doubling or more of the occurrence, integrated water vapor transport and precipitation associated with EARs, and a more concentrated tripling for the landfalling EARs, by the end of the 21st century. We further demonstrate that the coupling relationship between EARs and storms will be reduced in a warming climate, potentially influencing the predictability of future EARs | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ma, Xiaohui |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhou, Shenghui |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wu, Lixin |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wang, Hong |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Tang, Zhili |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Xu, Guangzhi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Jing, Zhao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen, Zhaohui |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Gan, Bolan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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