Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness : variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky
Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), variant-specific infected I1 and I2, recovered (R), and seropositive (T) model SVI2RT tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which corresponded to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration had the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Our study underscores the importance of continued environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - year:2023 |
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| Enthalten in: |
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences - (2023) vom: 28. Nov. |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Holm, Rochelle H [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Revised 15.12.2023 published: Electronic Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1101/2023.01.06.23284260 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM351675531 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Holm, Rochelle H |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Wastewater and seroprevalence for pandemic preparedness |b variant analysis, vaccination effect, and hospitalization forecasting for SARS-CoV-2, in Jefferson County, Kentucky |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 15.12.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status PubMed-not-MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Despite wide scale assessments, it remains unclear how large-scale SARS-CoV-2 vaccination affected the wastewater concentration of the virus or the overall disease burden as measured by hospitalization rates. We used weekly SARS-CoV-2 wastewater concentration with a stratified random sampling of seroprevalence, and linked vaccination and hospitalization data, from April 2021-August 2021 in Jefferson County, Kentucky (USA). Our susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), variant-specific infected I1 and I2, recovered (R), and seropositive (T) model SVI2RT tracked prevalence longitudinally. This was related to wastewater concentration. The 64% county vaccination rate translated into about 61% decrease in SARS-CoV-2 incidence. The estimated effect of SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant emergence was a 24-fold increase of infection counts, which corresponded to an over 9-fold increase in wastewater concentration. Hospitalization burden and wastewater concentration had the strongest correlation (r = 0.95) at 1 week lag. Our study underscores the importance of continued environmental surveillance post-vaccine and provides a proof-of-concept for environmental epidemiology monitoring of infectious disease for future pandemic preparedness | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Rempala, Grzegorz A |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Choi, Boseung |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Brick, J Michael |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Amraotkar, Alok R |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Keith, Rachel J |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rouchka, Eric C |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chariker, Julia H |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Palmer, Kenneth E |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Smith, Ted |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bhatnagar, Aruni |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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