Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic
Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved..
OBJECTIVES: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers.
METHODS: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors.
RESULTS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The "zero-COVID" countries experienced the greatest decline.
CONCLUSION: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2023 |
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| Erschienen: |
2023 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:128 |
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| Enthalten in: |
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases - 128(2023) vom: 06. März, Seite 132-139 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Bonacina, Francesco [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
COVID-19 pandemic |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 27.02.2023 Date Revised 20.03.2023 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1016/j.ijid.2022.12.042 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM35119889X |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Global patterns and drivers of influenza decline during the COVID-19 pandemic |
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| 500 | |a Date Completed 27.02.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 20.03.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved. | ||
| 520 | |a OBJECTIVES: The influenza circulation reportedly declined during the COVID-19 pandemic in many countries. The occurrence of this change has not been studied worldwide nor its potential drivers | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: The change in the proportion of positive influenza samples reported by country and trimester was computed relative to the 2014-2019 period using the FluNet database. Random forests were used to determine predictors of change from demographical, weather, pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and pandemic response characteristics. Regression trees were used to classify observations according to these predictors | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: During the COVID-19 pandemic, the influenza decline relative to prepandemic levels was global but heterogeneous across space and time. It was more than 50% for 311 of 376 trimesters-countries and even more than 99% for 135. COVID-19 incidence and pandemic preparedness were the two most important predictors of the decline. Europe and North America initially showed limited decline despite high COVID-19 restrictions; however, there was a strong decline afterward in most temperate countries, where pandemic preparedness, COVID-19 incidence, and social restrictions were high; the decline was limited in countries where these factors were low. The "zero-COVID" countries experienced the greatest decline | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSION: Our findings set the stage for interpreting the resurgence of influenza worldwide | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 pandemic | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Global analysis | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Influenza | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Regression trees | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Boëlle, Pierre-Yves |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Colizza, Vittoria |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Lopez, Olivier |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Thomas, Maud |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Poletto, Chiara |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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