Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery
Copyright © 2022 First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine in China. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved..
BACKGROUND: The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladder-preserving surgery. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence.
METHODS: The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected. The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence.
RESULTS: During the follow-up period, a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence, and the recurrence rate was 35.5%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones > 2 years [odds ratio (OR) = 2.567, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.270-5.187, P = 0.009], symptomatic gallstones (OR = 2.589, 95% CI: 1.059-6.329, P = 0.037), multiple gallstones (OR = 2.436, 95% CI: 1.133-5.237, P = 0.023), history of acute cholecystitis (OR = 2.778, 95% CI: 1.178-6.549, P = 0.020) and a greasy diet (OR = 2.319, 95% CI: 1.186-4.535, P = 0.014) were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery. A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables. The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692, suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence. Moreover, the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability.
CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might help clinicians develop a proper treatment strategy for patients with gallstones. Gallbladder-preserving surgery should be cautiously considered for patients with high recurrence risks.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2024 |
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| Erschienen: |
2024 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:23 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Hepatobiliary & pancreatic diseases international : HBPD INT - 23(2024), 3 vom: 02. Apr., Seite 288-292 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Liu, Peng [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Themen: |
Gallbladder-preserving surgery |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 15.04.2024 Date Revised 15.04.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1016/j.hbpd.2022.11.001 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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NLM349560021 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Development and validation of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery |
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| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Copyright © 2022 First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine in China. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. | ||
| 520 | |a BACKGROUND: The high incidence of gallstone recurrence was a major concern for laparoscopic gallbladder-preserving surgery. This study aimed to investigate the risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery and to establish an individualized nomogram model to predict the risk of gallstone recurrence | ||
| 520 | |a METHODS: The clinicopathological and follow-up data of 183 patients who were initially diagnosed with gallstones and treated with gallbladder-preserving surgery at our hospital from January 2012 to January 2019 were retrospectively collected. The independent predictive factors for gallstone recurrence following gallbladder-preserving surgery were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. A nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence was constructed based on the selected variables. The C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and calibration curve were used to evaluate the predictive power of the nomogram model for gallstone recurrence | ||
| 520 | |a RESULTS: During the follow-up period, a total of 65 patients experienced gallstone recurrence, and the recurrence rate was 35.5%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that the course of gallstones > 2 years [odds ratio (OR) = 2.567, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.270-5.187, P = 0.009], symptomatic gallstones (OR = 2.589, 95% CI: 1.059-6.329, P = 0.037), multiple gallstones (OR = 2.436, 95% CI: 1.133-5.237, P = 0.023), history of acute cholecystitis (OR = 2.778, 95% CI: 1.178-6.549, P = 0.020) and a greasy diet (OR = 2.319, 95% CI: 1.186-4.535, P = 0.014) were independent risk factors for gallstone recurrence after gallbladder-preserving surgery. A nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of gallstones was established based on the above five variables. The results showed that the C-index of the nomogram model was 0.692, suggesting it was valuable to predict gallstone recurrence. Moreover, the calibration curve showed good consistency between the predicted probability and actual probability | ||
| 520 | |a CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram model for the prediction of gallstone recurrence might help clinicians develop a proper treatment strategy for patients with gallstones. Gallbladder-preserving surgery should be cautiously considered for patients with high recurrence risks | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gallbladder-preserving surgery | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Gallstone | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Nomogram | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Recurrence | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Risk factors | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen, Yong-Wei |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Liu, Che |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wu, Yin-Tao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhao, Wen-Chao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhu, Jian-Yong |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a An, Yang |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Xia, Nian-Xin |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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