Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era
© 2022. The Author(s)..
England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality.
| Errataetall: | |
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| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
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| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:13 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Nature communications - 13(2022), 1 vom: 19. Aug., Seite 4879 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Barnard, Rosanna C [VerfasserIn] |
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Date Completed 23.08.2022 Date Revised 02.03.2023 published: Electronic UpdateOf: medRxiv. 2022 May 20;:. - PMID 34845459 Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1038/s41467-022-32404-y |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM345045424 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modelling the medium-term dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in England in the Omicron era |
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| 500 | |a Date Revised 02.03.2023 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a UpdateOf: medRxiv. 2022 May 20;:. - PMID 34845459 | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a © 2022. The Author(s). | ||
| 520 | |a England has experienced a heavy burden of COVID-19, with multiple waves of SARS-CoV-2 transmission since early 2020 and high infection levels following the emergence and spread of Omicron variants since late 2021. In response to rising Omicron cases, booster vaccinations were accelerated and offered to all adults in England. Using a model fitted to more than 2 years of epidemiological data, we project potential dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infections, hospital admissions and deaths in England to December 2022. We consider key uncertainties including future behavioural change and waning immunity and assess the effectiveness of booster vaccinations in mitigating SARS-CoV-2 disease burden between October 2021 and December 2022. If no new variants emerge, SARS-CoV-2 transmission is expected to decline, with low levels remaining in the coming months. The extent to which projected SARS-CoV-2 transmission resurges later in 2022 depends largely on assumptions around waning immunity and to some extent, behaviour, and seasonality | ||
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