The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2
The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:119 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America - 119(2022), 31 vom: 02. Aug., Seite e2204336119 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Townsend, Jeffrey P [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 22.07.2022 Date Revised 20.09.2022 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1073/pnas.2204336119 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM343784408 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM343784408 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20231226021243.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231226s2022 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1073/pnas.2204336119 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1145.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM343784408 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)35858382 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Townsend, Jeffrey P |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 4 | |a The durability of natural infection and vaccine-induced immunity against future infection by SARS-CoV-2 |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2022 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 22.07.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 20.09.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print-Electronic | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a The durability of vaccine-mediated immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the durations to breakthrough infection, and the optimal timings of booster vaccination are crucial knowledge for pandemic response. Here, we applied comparative evolutionary analyses to estimate the durability of immunity and the likelihood of breakthrough infections over time following vaccination by BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), mRNA-1273 (Moderna), ChAdOx1 (Oxford-AstraZeneca), and Ad26.COV2.S (Johnson & Johnson/Janssen). We evaluated anti-Spike (S) immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibody levels elicited by each vaccine relative to natural infection. We estimated typical trajectories of waning and corresponding infection probabilities, providing the distribution of times to breakthrough infection for each vaccine under endemic conditions. Peak antibody levels elicited by messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2 exceeded that of natural infection and are expected to typically yield more durable protection against breakthrough infections (median 29.6 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 10.9 mo to 7.9 y) than natural infection (median 21.5 mo; 5 to 95% quantiles 3.5 mo to 7.1 y). Relative to mRNA-1273 and BNT1262b2, viral vector vaccines ChAdOx1 and Ad26.COV2.S exhibit similar peak anti-S IgG antibody responses to that from natural infection and are projected to yield lower, shorter-term protection against breakthrough infection (median 22.4 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 4.3 mo to 7.2 y; and median 20.5 mo and 5 to 95% quantiles 2.6 mo to 7.0 y; respectively). These results leverage the tools from evolutionary biology to provide a quantitative basis for otherwise unknown parameters that are fundamental to public health policy decision-making | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Comparative Study | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. | |
| 650 | 4 | |a COVID-19 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a SARS-CoV-2 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a antibody | |
| 650 | 4 | |a immunity | |
| 650 | 4 | |a vaccine | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Antibodies, Viral |2 NLM | |
| 650 | 7 | |a COVID-19 Vaccines |2 NLM | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Immunoglobulin G |2 NLM | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Spike Glycoprotein, Coronavirus |2 NLM | |
| 650 | 7 | |a spike protein, SARS-CoV-2 |2 NLM | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hassler, Hayley B |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sah, Pratha |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Galvani, Alison P |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Dornburg, Alex |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |d 1915 |g 119(2022), 31 vom: 02. Aug., Seite e2204336119 |w (DE-627)NLM000008982 |x 1091-6490 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:119 |g year:2022 |g number:31 |g day:02 |g month:08 |g pages:e2204336119 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2204336119 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 119 |j 2022 |e 31 |b 02 |c 08 |h e2204336119 | ||