Extreme COVID-19 waves reveal hyperexponential growth and finite-time singularity
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread throughout our planet, bringing human lives to a standstill. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of a wave helps plan intervention strategies such as lockdowns that mitigate further spread, minimizing the adverse impact on humanity and the economy. Exponential growth of infections was thought to be the defining feature of an epidemic in its initial growth phase. Here we show that, contrary to common belief, early stages of extreme COVID-19 waves have an unbounded growth and finite-time singularity accompanying a hyperexponential power-law. The faster than exponential growth phase is hazardous and would entail stricter regulations to minimize further spread. Such a power-law description allows us to characterize COVID-19 waves better using single power-law exponents, rather than using piecewise exponentials. Furthermore, we identify the presence of log-periodic patterns decorating the power-law growth. These log-periodic oscillations may enable better prediction of the finite-time singularity. We anticipate that our findings of hyperexponential growth and log-periodicity will enable accurate modeling of outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent epidemics.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:32 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.) - 32(2022), 4 vom: 27. Apr., Seite 041104 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Pavithran, Induja [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 03.05.2022 Date Revised 03.05.2022 published: Print Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1063/5.0081231 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM340186410 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM340186410 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20231226004555.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231226s2022 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1063/5.0081231 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1133.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM340186410 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)35489852 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Pavithran, Induja |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Extreme COVID-19 waves reveal hyperexponential growth and finite-time singularity |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2022 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 03.05.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 03.05.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has rapidly spread throughout our planet, bringing human lives to a standstill. Understanding the early transmission dynamics of a wave helps plan intervention strategies such as lockdowns that mitigate further spread, minimizing the adverse impact on humanity and the economy. Exponential growth of infections was thought to be the defining feature of an epidemic in its initial growth phase. Here we show that, contrary to common belief, early stages of extreme COVID-19 waves have an unbounded growth and finite-time singularity accompanying a hyperexponential power-law. The faster than exponential growth phase is hazardous and would entail stricter regulations to minimize further spread. Such a power-law description allows us to characterize COVID-19 waves better using single power-law exponents, rather than using piecewise exponentials. Furthermore, we identify the presence of log-periodic patterns decorating the power-law growth. These log-periodic oscillations may enable better prediction of the finite-time singularity. We anticipate that our findings of hyperexponential growth and log-periodicity will enable accurate modeling of outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent epidemics | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sujith, R I |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Chaos (Woodbury, N.Y.) |d 1991 |g 32(2022), 4 vom: 27. Apr., Seite 041104 |w (DE-627)NLM114360804 |x 1089-7682 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:32 |g year:2022 |g number:4 |g day:27 |g month:04 |g pages:041104 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/5.0081231 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 32 |j 2022 |e 4 |b 27 |c 04 |h 041104 | ||