Rabies shows how scale of transmission can enable acute infections to persist at low prevalence
How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
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| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:376 |
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| Enthalten in: |
Science (New York, N.Y.) - 376(2022), 6592 vom: 29. Apr., Seite 512-516 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Mancy, Rebecca [VerfasserIn] |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 02.05.2022 Date Revised 14.02.2024 published: Print-Electronic Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1126/science.abn0713 |
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| 520 | |a How acute pathogens persist and what curtails their epidemic growth in the absence of acquired immunity remains unknown. Canine rabies is a fatal zoonosis that circulates endemically at low prevalence among domestic dogs in low- and middle-income countries. We traced rabies transmission in a population of 50,000 dogs in Tanzania from 2002 to 2016 and applied individual-based models to these spatially resolved data to investigate the mechanisms modulating transmission and the scale over which they operate. Although rabies prevalence never exceeded 0.15%, the best-fitting models demonstrated appreciable depletion of susceptible animals that occurred at local scales because of clusters of deaths and dogs already incubating infection. Individual variation in rabid dog behavior facilitated virus dispersal and cocirculation of virus lineages, enabling metapopulation persistence. These mechanisms have important implications for prediction and control of pathogens that circulate in spatially structured populations | ||
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| 700 | 1 | |a Lugelo, Ahmed |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Brunker, Kirstyn |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Cleaveland, Sarah |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ferguson, Elaine A |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hotopp, Karen |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Kazwala, Rudovick |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Magoto, Matthias |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Rysava, Kristyna |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Haydon, Daniel T |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Hampson, Katie |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
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