Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China
SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. Over 92% of the Chinese population aged ≥12 years has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages). At the end of October 2021, the vaccination programme has been extended to children aged 3-11 years. Here, we aim to assess whether, in this vaccination landscape, the importation of Delta variant infections could shift COVID-19 burden from adults to children. We developed an age-structured susceptible-infectious-removed model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to simulate epidemics triggered by the importation of Delta variant infections and project the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. In the context of the vaccination programme targeting individuals aged ≥12 years, and in the absence of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the importation of Delta variant infections could have led to widespread transmission and substantial disease burden in mainland China, even with vaccination coverage as high as 89% across the eligible age groups. Extending the vaccination roll-out to include children aged 3-11 years (as it was the case since the end of October 2021) is estimated to dramatically decrease the burden of symptomatic infections and hospitalizations within this age group (39% and 68%, respectively, when considering a vaccination coverage of 87%), but would have a low impact on protecting infants. Our findings highlight the importance of including children among the target population and the need to strengthen vaccination efforts by increasing vaccine effectiveness.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
|---|
| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
|---|---|
| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:11 |
|---|---|
| Enthalten in: |
Emerging microbes & infections - 11(2022), 1 vom: 01. Dez., Seite 1205-1214 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
|---|
| Beteiligte Personen: |
Cai, Jun [VerfasserIn] |
|---|
| Links: |
|---|
| Themen: |
COVID-19 Vaccines |
|---|
| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 27.04.2022 Date Revised 16.07.2022 published: Print Citation Status MEDLINE |
|---|
| doi: |
10.1080/22221751.2022.2063073 |
|---|
| funding: |
|
|---|---|
| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
|
| PPN (Katalog-ID): |
NLM339099356 |
|---|
| LEADER | 01000naa a22002652 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | NLM339099356 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20231226002141.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 231226s2022 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1080/22221751.2022.2063073 |2 doi | |
| 028 | 5 | 2 | |a pubmed24n1130.xml |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)NLM339099356 | ||
| 035 | |a (NLM)35380100 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rakwb | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Cai, Jun |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Assessing the transition of COVID-19 burden towards the young population while vaccines are rolled out in China |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2022 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a ƒaComputermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a ƒa Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Date Completed 27.04.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a Date Revised 16.07.2022 | ||
| 500 | |a published: Print | ||
| 500 | |a Citation Status MEDLINE | ||
| 520 | |a SARS-CoV-2 infection causes most cases of severe illness and fatality in older age groups. Over 92% of the Chinese population aged ≥12 years has been fully vaccinated against COVID-19 (albeit with vaccines developed against historical lineages). At the end of October 2021, the vaccination programme has been extended to children aged 3-11 years. Here, we aim to assess whether, in this vaccination landscape, the importation of Delta variant infections could shift COVID-19 burden from adults to children. We developed an age-structured susceptible-infectious-removed model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to simulate epidemics triggered by the importation of Delta variant infections and project the age-specific incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infections, cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit admissions, and deaths. In the context of the vaccination programme targeting individuals aged ≥12 years, and in the absence of non-pharmaceutical interventions, the importation of Delta variant infections could have led to widespread transmission and substantial disease burden in mainland China, even with vaccination coverage as high as 89% across the eligible age groups. Extending the vaccination roll-out to include children aged 3-11 years (as it was the case since the end of October 2021) is estimated to dramatically decrease the burden of symptomatic infections and hospitalizations within this age group (39% and 68%, respectively, when considering a vaccination coverage of 87%), but would have a low impact on protecting infants. Our findings highlight the importance of including children among the target population and the need to strengthen vaccination efforts by increasing vaccine effectiveness | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Journal Article | |
| 650 | 4 | |a China | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Delta variant | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Novel coronavirus disease 2019 | |
| 650 | 4 | |a children | |
| 650 | 4 | |a transition of disease burden | |
| 650 | 4 | |a vaccination | |
| 650 | 7 | |a COVID-19 Vaccines |2 NLM | |
| 650 | 7 | |a Vaccines |2 NLM | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yang, Juan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Deng, Xiaowei |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Peng, Cheng |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Chen, Xinhua |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Wu, Qianhui |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Liu, Hengcong |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhang, Juanjuan |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zheng, Wen |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zou, Junyi |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Zhao, Zeyao |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Ajelli, Marco |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Yu, Hongjie |e verfasserin |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Emerging microbes & infections |d 2012 |g 11(2022), 1 vom: 01. Dez., Seite 1205-1214 |w (DE-627)NLM249608804 |x 2222-1751 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:11 |g year:2022 |g number:1 |g day:01 |g month:12 |g pages:1205-1214 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/22221751.2022.2063073 |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a GBV_USEFLAG_A | ||
| 912 | |a GBV_NLM | ||
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| 952 | |d 11 |j 2022 |e 1 |b 01 |c 12 |h 1205-1214 | ||