Age structure in SIRD models for the COVID-19 pandemic-A case study on Italy data and effects on mortality
The COVID-19 pandemic is bringing disruptive effects on the healthcare systems, economy and social life of countries all over the world. Even though the elder portion of the population is the most severely affected by the COVID-19 disease, the counter-measures introduced so far by governments took into little account the age structure, with restrictions that act uniformly on the population irrespectively of age. In this paper, we introduce a SIRD model with age classes for studying the impact on the epidemic evolution of lockdown policies applied heterogeneously on the different age groups of the population. The proposed model is then applied to age-stratified COVID-19 Italian data. The simulation results suggest that control measures focused to specific age groups may bring benefits in terms of reduction of the overall mortality rate.
| Medienart: |
E-Artikel |
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| Erscheinungsjahr: |
2022 |
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| Erschienen: |
2022 |
| Enthalten in: |
Zur Gesamtaufnahme - volume:17 |
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| Enthalten in: |
PloS one - 17(2022), 2 vom: 25., Seite e0264324 |
| Sprache: |
Englisch |
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| Beteiligte Personen: |
Calafiore, Giuseppe Carlo [VerfasserIn] |
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| Links: |
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| Anmerkungen: |
Date Completed 03.03.2022 Date Revised 03.03.2022 published: Electronic-eCollection Citation Status MEDLINE |
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| doi: |
10.1371/journal.pone.0264324 |
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| funding: |
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| Förderinstitution / Projekttitel: |
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NLM337339902 |
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| 520 | |a The COVID-19 pandemic is bringing disruptive effects on the healthcare systems, economy and social life of countries all over the world. Even though the elder portion of the population is the most severely affected by the COVID-19 disease, the counter-measures introduced so far by governments took into little account the age structure, with restrictions that act uniformly on the population irrespectively of age. In this paper, we introduce a SIRD model with age classes for studying the impact on the epidemic evolution of lockdown policies applied heterogeneously on the different age groups of the population. The proposed model is then applied to age-stratified COVID-19 Italian data. The simulation results suggest that control measures focused to specific age groups may bring benefits in terms of reduction of the overall mortality rate | ||
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